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A local criterion of topological phase transitions is established based on the Morse theory: a topological phase transition occurs when the count of Morse critical points of the order function changes. The locations in space where this…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-09-22 Yangfan Hu

Stochastic processes are commonly used models to describe dynamics of a wide variety of nonequilibrium phenomena ranging from electrical transport to biological motion. The transition matrix describing a stochastic process can be regarded…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-02-02 Taro Sawada , Kazuki Sone , Ryusuke Hamazaki , Yuto Ashida , Takahiro Sagawa

We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-12 V. N. Livina , G. Lohmann , M. Mudelsee , T. M. Lenton

Specific aspects of time series analysis are discussed. They are related to the analysis of atmospheric data that are pertinent to clouds. A brief introduction on some of the most interesting topics of current research on climate/weather…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 K. Ivanova , M. Ausloos , T. Ackerman , H. N. Shirer , E. E. Clothiaux

Topology is a powerful tool for categorizing magnetization textures by defining a topological index in both two-dimensional (2D) systems, such as thin films or curved surfaces, and in 3D bulk systems. In the emerging field of 3D…

Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…

Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…

Applications · Statistics 2014-11-19 Yang Liu , Philip Kokic

The elsewhere surmised topological origin of phase transitions is given here new important evidence through the analytic study of an exactly solvable model for which both topology and thermodynamics are worked out. The model is a mean-field…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Luca Angelani , Lapo Casetti , Marco Pettini , Giancarlo Ruocco , Francesco Zamponi

Urgent applications like wildfire management and renewable energy generation require precise, localized weather forecasts near the Earth's surface. However, forecasts produced by machine learning models or numerical weather prediction…

Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-07-15 Justin Finkel , Dorian Abbot , Jonathan Weare

Atmospheric flows exhibit long-range spatiotemporal correlations manifested as the fractal geometry to the global cloud cover pattern concomitant with inverse power-law form for power spectra of temporal fluctuations of all scales ranging…

General Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 A. M. Selvam , S. Fadnavis

Many records in environmental sciences exhibit asymmetric trajectories and there is a need for simple and tractable models which can reproduce such features. In this paper we explore an approach based on applying both a time change and a…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-09 Pierre Ailliot , Bernard Delyon , Valérie Monbet , Marc Prevosto

We demonstrate the identification and classification of topological phase transitions from experimental data using Diffusion Maps: a nonlocal unsupervised machine learning method. We analyze experimental data from an optical system…

Optics · Physics 2021-04-09 Eran Lustig , Or Yair , Ronen Talmon , Mordechai Segev

The low frequency variability of the extratropical atmosphere involves hemispheric-scale recurring, often persistent, states known as teleconnection patterns or regimes, which can have profound impact on predictability on intra-seasonal and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-01-31 Dmitry Mukhin , Abdel Hannachi , Tobias Braun , Norbert Marwan

Spatio-temporal (ST) data, which represent multiple time series data corresponding to different spatial locations, are ubiquitous in real-world dynamic systems, such as air quality readings. Forecasting over ST data is of great importance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-01 Zheyi Pan , Yuxuan Liang , Junbo Zhang , Xiuwen Yi , Yong Yu , Yu Zheng

In nonlinear dynamical systems, tipping refers to a critical transition from one steady state to another, typically catastrophic, steady state, often resulting from a saddle-node bifurcation. Recently, the machine-learning framework of…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-09 Smita Deb , Zheng-Meng Zhai , Mulugeta Haile , Ying-Cheng Lai

We argue that the phase transition in the mean-field XY model is related to a particular change in the topology of its configuration space. The nature of this topological transition can be discussed on the basis of elementary Morse theory…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Lapo Casetti , E. G. D. Cohen , Marco Pettini

The study of phase transitions using data-driven approaches is challenging, especially when little prior knowledge of the system is available. Topological data analysis is an emerging framework for characterizing the shape of data and has…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-05-26 Quoc Hoan Tran , Mark Chen , Yoshihiko Hasegawa

We use tools from applied topology for feature selection on time series data. We develop a method for scoring the variables in a multivariate time series that reflects their contributions to the topological features of the corresponding…

Algebraic Topology · Mathematics 2025-08-06 Peter Bubenik , Johnathan Bush

We review some recent methods of subgrid-scale parameterization used in the context of climate modeling. These methods are developed to take into account (subgrid) processes playing an important role in the correct representation of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-01-18 Jonathan Demaeyer , Stéphane Vannitsem