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Weather regimes provide a useful framework for describing large-scale atmospheric variability and its impacts on regional weather. Despite extensive study, there is still no universally accepted definition or method for identifying weather…

Algebraic Topology · Mathematics 2026-05-21 Soheil Anbouhi

The predictions of mean-field electrodynamics can now be probed using direct numerical simulations of random flows and magnetic fields. When modelling astrophysical MHD, it is important to verify that such simulations are in agreement with…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-09-12 Irina Makarenko , Paul Bushby , Andrew Fletcher , Robin Henderson , Nikolay Makarenko , Anvar Shukurov

Long-term forecasting of multivariate urban data poses a significant challenge due to the complex spatiotemporal dependencies inherent in such datasets. This paper presents DST, a novel multivariate time-series forecasting model that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-28 Amirhossein Sohrabbeig , Omid Ardakanian , Petr Musilek

Atmospheric trace-gas inversion refers to any technique used to predict spatial and temporal fluxes using mole-fraction measurements and atmospheric simulations obtained from computer models. Studies to date are most often of a…

Seasonal time series exhibit intricate long-term dependencies, posing a significant challenge for accurate future prediction. This paper introduces the Multi-scale Seasonal Decomposition Model (MSSD) for seasonal time-series forecasting.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Yining Pang , Chenghan Li

This paper is a review of results which have been recently obtained by applying mathematical concepts drawn, in particular, from differential geometry and topology, to the physics of Hamiltonian dynamical systems with many degrees of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Lapo Casetti , Marco Pettini , E. G. D. Cohen

Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-11-16 Christian L. E. Franzke , Terence J. O'Kane , Judith Berner , Paul D. Williams , Valerio Lucarini

As phenomena that necessarily emerge from the collective behavior of interacting particles, phase transitions continue to be difficult to predict using statistical thermodynamics. A recent proposal called the topological hypothesis suggests…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-06-08 O. B. Ericok , J. K. Mason

Within the framework of computational plasticity, recent advances show that the quasi-static response of an elasto-plastic structure under cyclic loadings may exhibit a time multiscale behaviour. In particular, the system response can be…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-08-25 Sebastian Rodriguez , Angelo Pasquale , Khanh Nguyen , Amine Ammar , Francisco Chinesta

Recent progress toward classifying low-dimensional chaos measured from time series data is described. This classification theory assigns a template to the time series once the time series is embedded in three dimensions. The template…

chao-dyn · Physics 2008-02-03 Nicholas B. Tufillaro

We provide a phenomenological theory for topological transitions in restructuring networks. In this statistical mechanical approach energy is assigned to the different network topologies and temperature is used as a quantity referring to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-31 Gergely Palla , Imre Derenyi , Illes Farkas , Tamas Vicsek

We introduce a nonstationary spatio-temporal statistical model for gridded data on the sphere. The model specifies a computationally convenient covariance structure that depends on heterogeneous geography. Widely used statistical models on…

Applications · Statistics 2016-02-25 Stefano Castruccio , Joseph Guinness

Current wind turbine simulations successfully use turbulence generating tools for modeling behavior. However, they lack the ability to reproduce variabilities in wind dynamics and inherent stochastic structures (like temporal and spatial…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-03-29 Qiang Guo , Daniel Rajewski , Eugene Takle , Baskar Ganapathysubramanian

We develop a framework for analyzing multivariate time series using topological data analysis (TDA) methods. The proposed methodology involves converting the multivariate time series to point cloud data, calculating Wasserstein distances…

Algebraic Topology · Mathematics 2020-12-29 Chengyuan Wu , Carol Anne Hargreaves

Atmospheric models used for weather and climate prediction are traditionally formulated in a deterministic manner. In other words, given a particular state of the resolved scale variables, the most likely forcing from the sub-grid scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-16 Hannah M. Christensen , Salah Kouhen , Greta Miller , Raghul Parthipan

It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2010-12-15 J. M. T. Thompson , Jan Sieber

Topological data analysis (TDA), while abstract, allows a characterization of time-series data obtained from nonlinear and complex dynamical systems. Though it is surprising that such an abstract measure of structure - counting pieces and…

Computational Geometry · Computer Science 2020-01-07 Nicole Sanderson , Elliott Shugerman , Samantha Molnar , James D. Meiss , Elizabeth Bradley

The unsupervised and principled diagnosis of multi-scale data is a fundamental obstacle in modern scientific problems from, for instance, weather and climate prediction, neurology, epidemiology, and turbulence. Multi-scale data is…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Karl Lapo , Sara M. Ichinaga , Nathan Kutz

The low-frequency variability of the mid-latitude atmosphere involves complex nonlinear and chaotic dynamical processes posing predictability challenges. It is characterized by sporadically recurring, often long-lived patterns of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-24 Dmitry Mukhin , Roman Samoilov , Abdel Hannachi

Topological data analysis is a relatively new branch of machine learning that excels in studying high dimensional data, and is theoretically known to be robust against noise. Meanwhile, data objects with mixed numeric and categorical…

Algebraic Topology · Mathematics 2020-06-15 Chengyuan Wu , Carol Anne Hargreaves
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