Related papers: Anticipating Persistent Infection
To simplify mathematical models of disease spread, we often assume equal contact rates among hosts, but real-world scenarios differ. Network-based frameworks help capture these complexities and structural variations in actual systems. We…
The adoption of prophylaxis attitudes, such as social isolation and use of face masks, to mitigate epidemic outbreaks strongly depends on the support of the population. In this work, we investigate a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…
Despite high vaccine coverage, pertussis has re-emerged as a public health concern in many countries. One hypothesis posed for re-emergence is the waning of immunity. In some disease systems, the process of waning immunity can be…
We study the phase transition from the persistence phase to the extinction phase for the SIRS (susceptible/ infected/ refractory/ susceptible) model of diseases spreading on the networks. We derive an analytical expression of the…
A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing…
In this paper, a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with identical infectivity, where each node is assigned with the same capability of active contacts, $A$, at each time step, is presented. We found that on scale-free networks,…
This paper focuses on and analyzes realistic SIR models that take stochasticity into account. The proposed systems are applicable to most incidence rates that are used in the literature including the bilinear incidence rate, the…
An actively controlled Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (actSIS) contagion model is presented for studying epidemic dynamics with continuous-time feedback control of infection rates. Our work is inspired by the observation that epidemics…
Contacts' temporal ordering and dynamics are crucial for understanding the transmission of infectious diseases. We introduce an interaction-driven model of an airborne disease over contact networks. We demonstrate our interaction-driven…
We study dynamics of spread of epidemics of SIR type in a realistic spatially-explicit geographical region, Southern and Central Ontario, using census data obtained from Statistics Canada, and examine the role of population mixing in…
We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…
Higher-order interactions play an important role in complex contagion processes. Mean-field approximations have been used to characterize the onset of spreading in the presence of group interactions. However, individual-based mean-field…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
We propose a compartmental model for a disease with temporary immunity and secondary infections. From our assumptions on the parameters involved in the model, the system naturally evolves in three time scales. We characterize the equilibria…
The SIR-compartment model is among the simplest models that describe the spread of a disease through a population. The model makes the unrealistic assumption that the population through which the disease is spreading is well-mixed. Although…
Different countries -- and sometimes different regions within the same countries -- have adopted different strategies in trying to contain the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic; these mix in variable parts social confinement, early detection and…
The integration of empirical data in computational frameworks to model the spread of infectious diseases poses challenges that are becoming pressing with the increasing availability of high-resolution information on human mobility and…
We consider an epidemiological model that includes waning and boosting of immunity. Assuming that repeated exposure to the pathogen fully restores immunity, we derive an SIRS-type model with discrete and distributed delays. First we prove…
Heterogeneity is an important property of any population experiencing a disease. Here we apply general methods of the theory of heterogeneous populations to the simplest mathematical models in epidemiology. In particular, an SIR…
Infection spread among individuals is modelled with a continuous time Markov chain, in which subject interactions depend on their distance in space. The well known SIR model and non local variants of the latter are then obtained as large…