Related papers: Anticipating Persistent Infection
The Covid-19 pandemic has taken millions of lives, demonstrating the tragedy and disruption of respiratory diseases, and how difficult they can be to manage. However, there is still significant debate in the scientific community as to which…
Sexual partnerships that overlap in time (concurrent relationships) may play a significant role in the HIV epidemic, but the precise effect is unclear. We derive edge-based compartmental models of disease spread in idealized dynamic…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
There is a rich history of models for the interaction of a biological contagion like influenza with the spread of related information such as an influenza vaccination campaign. Recent work on the spread of interacting contagions on networks…
Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…
Regional quarantine policies, in which a portion of a population surrounding infections are locked down, are an important tool to contain disease. However, jurisdictional governments -- such as cities, counties, states, and countries -- act…
Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) continue to present a complex and costly challenge to public health programs. The preferences and social dynamics of a population can have a large impact on the course of an outbreak as well as the…
Consider a Markovian SIR epidemic model in a homogeneous community. To this model we add a rate at which individuals are tested, and once an infectious individual tests positive it is isolated and each of their contacts are traced and…
This paper analyses an SIRS-type model for infectious diseases with account for behavioural changes associated with the simultaneous spread of awareness in the population. Two types of awareness are included into the model: private…
We study the long-time behavior of solutions of the SIRS model, a reaction-diffusion system that appears in epidemiology to describe the spread of epidemics. We allow the system to be heterogeneous periodic. Under some hypotheses on the…
We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…
We develop a theory for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on networks that incorporate both network structure and dynamic correlations. This theory can account for the multistage onset of the epidemic phase in…
We study two simple mathematical models of the epidemic. At first, we study the repetitive infection spreading in a simplified SIRS model including the effect of the decay of the acquired immune. The model is an intermediate model of the…
Models for resident infectious diseases, like the SIRS model, may settle into an endemic state with constant numbers of susceptible ($S$), infected ($I$) and recovered ($R$) individuals, where recovered individuals attain a temporary…
We investigate the effects of cooperativity between contagion processes that spread and persist in a host population. We propose and analyze a dynamical model in which individuals that are affected by one transmissible agent $A$ exhibit a…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
We study a well mixed SIR epidemic model with heterogeneous susceptibility and infectivity, allowing for an arbitrary joint distribution of these traits. Using an exact final size formulation and a branching process approximation for early…
We consider the interplay of vaccination and migration rates on disease persistence in epidemiological systems. We show that short-term and long-term migration can inhibit disease persistence. As a result, we show how migration changes how…
The generation interval is the time between the infection time of an infected person and the infection time of his or her infector. Probability density functions for generation intervals have been an important input for epidemic models and…
We introduce an interacting particle system that models the spread of an epidemic in terms of heterogeneous diffusive dynamics, rather than exogenous contact and transmission rates at the population level as in classical compartmental…