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We consider a model for multivariate data with heavy-tailed marginal distributions and a Gaussian dependence structure. The different marginals in the model are allowed to have non-identical tail behavior in contrast to most popular…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-23 Bikramjit Das

In this paper, we study the problem of stochastic linear bandits with finite action sets. Most of existing work assume the payoffs are bounded or sub-Gaussian, which may be violated in some scenarios such as financial markets. To settle…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-29 Bo Xue , Guanghui Wang , Yimu Wang , Lijun Zhang

Expected risk minimization (ERM) is at the core of many machine learning systems. This means that the risk inherent in a loss distribution is summarized using a single number - its average. In this paper, we propose a general approach to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-24 Christian Fröhlich , Robert C. Williamson

In this paper we present a novel methodology to perform Bayesian model selection in linear models with heavy-tailed distributions. We consider a finite mixture of distributions to model a latent variable where each component of the mixture…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-21 Flávio B Gonçalves , Marcos O. Prates , Victor H. Lachos

The masses of data now available have opened up the prospect of discovering weak signals using machine-learning algorithms, with a view to predictive or interpretation tasks. As this survey of recent results attempts to show, bringing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Stephan Clémençon , Anne Sabourin

In this work, we focus on some conditional extreme risk measures estimation for elliptical random vectors. In a previous paper, we proposed a methodology to approximate extreme quantiles, based on two extremal parameters. We thus propose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-26 Antoine Usseglio-Carleve

Computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures using standard Monte Carlo simulation can be inefficient. A method to speed up computations is provided by importance sampling. We show that importance sampling algorithms,…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-21 Henrik Hult , Jens Svensson

We analyze neural scaling laws in a solvable model of last-layer fine-tuning where targets have intrinsic, instance-heterogeneous difficulty. In our Latent Instance Difficulty (LID) model, each input's target variance is governed by a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-08 Noam Levi

This paper gives two theoretical results on estimating low-rank parameter matrices for linear models with multivariate responses. We first focus on robust parameter estimation of low-rank multi-task learning with heavy-tailed data and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-24 Kangqiang Li , Yuxuan Wang

This paper presents a number of new findings about the canonical change point estimation problem. The first part studies the estimation of a change point on the real line in a simple stump model using the robust Huber estimating function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-26 Debarghya Mukherjee , Moulinath Banerjee , Ya'acov Ritov

A regularized risk minimization procedure for regression function estimation is introduced that achieves near optimal accuracy and confidence under general conditions, including heavy-tailed predictor and response variables. The procedure…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-30 Gábor Lugosi , Shahar Mendelson

Finite sample properties of random covariance-type matrices have been the subject of much research. In this paper we focus on the "lower tail" of such a matrix, and prove that it is subgaussian under a simple fourth moment assumption on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-11 Roberto Imbuzeiro Oliveira

The increasing penetration of embedded renewables makes forecasting net-load, consumption less embedded generation, a significant and growing challenge. Here a framework for producing probabilistic forecasts of net-load is proposed with…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-06 Jethro Browell , Matteo Fasiolo

Reinforcement learning algorithms typically assume rewards to be sampled from light-tailed distributions, such as Gaussian or bounded. However, a wide variety of real-world systems generate rewards that follow heavy-tailed distributions. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-26 Vincent Zhuang , Yanan Sui

Gradient compression has surfaced as a key technique to address the challenge of communication efficiency in distributed learning. In distributed deep learning, however, it is observed that gradient distributions are heavy-tailed, with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-07 Guangfeng Yan , Tan Li , Yuanzhang Xiao , Hanxu Hou , Linqi Song

Extremile regression, as a least squares analog of quantile regression, is potentially useful tool for modeling and understanding the extreme tails of a distribution. However, existing extremile regression methods, as nonparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-03 Rong Jiang , Keming Yu , Jiangfeng Wang

We consider distributed recursive estimation of consensus+innovations type in the presence of heavy-tailed sensing and communication noises. We allow that the sensing and communication noises are mutually correlated while independent…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-11-13 Manojlo Vukovic , Dusan Jakovetic , Dragana Bajovic , Soummya Kar

Main challenges in long-tailed recognition come from the imbalanced data distribution and sample scarcity in its tail classes. While techniques have been proposed to achieve a more balanced training loss and to improve tail classes data…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-04 Bo Liu , Haoxiang Li , Hao Kang , Nuno Vasconcelos , Gang Hua

In this paper we develop a novel inferential approach based on geometric records for estimating the tail index of heavy-tailed distributions. We construct a maximum likelihood estimator for the Pareto model and establish its strong…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-30 Martín Alcalde , Raúl Gouet , Miguel Lafuente , F. Javier López , Gerardo Sanz

A weighted Gaussian approximation to tail product-limit process for Pareto-like distributions of randomly right-truncated data is provided and a new consistent and asymptotically normal estimator of the extreme value index is derived. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-07 Souad Benchaira , Djamel Meraghni , Abdelhakim Necir