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We propose an approach to compute the conditional moments of fat-tailed phenomena that, only looking at data, could be mistakenly considered as having infinite mean. This type of problems manifests itself when a random variable Y has a…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-02 Nassim Nicholas Taleb , Pasquale Cirillo

We consider the problem of predicting as well as the best linear combination of d given functions in least squares regression under L^\infty constraints on the linear combination. When the input distribution is known, there already exists…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-09-14 Jean-Yves Audibert , Olivier Catoni

We consider a regression framework where the design points are deterministic and the errors possibly non-i.i.d. and heavy-tailed (with a moment of order $p$ in $[1,2]$). Given a class of candidate regression functions, we propose a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-03 Yannick Baraud , Guillaume Maillard

We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-07 Jaakko Lehtomaa

I report a new statistical distribution formulated to confront the infamous, long-standing, computational/modeling challenge presented by highly skewed and/or leptokurtic ("fat- or heavy-tailed") data. The distribution is straightforward,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-11-01 Lawrence R. Thorne

Expected shortfall (ES), also known as conditional value-at-risk, is a widely recognized risk measure that complements value-at-risk by capturing tail-related risks more effectively. Compared with quantile regression, which has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-13 Myeonghun Yu , Kean Ming Tan , Huixia Judy Wang , Wen-Xin Zhou

For purposes of Value-at-Risk estimation, we consider several multivariate families of heavy-tailed distributions, which can be seen as multidimensional versions of Paretian stable and Student's t distributions allowing different marginals…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2011-12-20 Carlo Marinelli , Stefano d'Addona , Svetlozar T. Rachev

In several applications, ultimately at the largest data, truncation effects can be observed when analysing tail characteristics of statistical distributions. In some cases truncation effects are forecasted through physical models such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-17 Jan Beirlant , Isabel Fraga Alves , Tom Reynkens

A current strand of research in high-dimensional statistics deals with robustifying the available methodology with respect to deviations from the pervasive light-tail assumptions. In this paper we consider a linear mean regression model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-06 Philipp Hermann , Hajo Holzmann

We consider estimation of the extreme value index and extreme quantiles for heavy-tailed data that are right-censored. We study a general procedure of removing low importance observations in tail estimators. This trimming procedure is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-13 Martin Bladt , Hansjoerg Albrecher , Jan Beirlant

Learning with a {\it convex loss} function has been a dominating paradigm for many years. It remains an interesting question how non-convex loss functions help improve the generalization of learning with broad applicability. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-22 Yi Xu , Shenghuo Zhu , Sen Yang , Chi Zhang , Rong Jin , Tianbao Yang

We study tail risk dynamics in high-frequency financial markets and their connection with trading activity and market uncertainty. We introduce a dynamic extreme value regression model accommodating both stationary and local unit-root…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-01-05 Julien Hambuckers , Li Sun , Luca Trapin

We consider the problem of inference for non-stationary time series with heavy-tailed error distribution. Under a time-varying linear process framework we show that there exists a suitable local approximation by a stationary process with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-09 Fumiya Akashi , Konstantinos Fokianos , Junichi Hirukawa

This paper addresses the problem of estimating, in the presence of random censoring as well as competing risks, the extreme value index of the (sub)-distribution function associated to one particular cause, in the heavy-tail case.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-20 Julien Worms , Rym Worms

This paper investigates the robust linear discriminant analysis (LDA) problem with elliptical distributions in high-dimensional data. We propose a robust classification method, named SSLDA, that is intended to withstand heavy-tailed…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-16 Dan Zhuang , Long Feng

We characterise the learning of a mixture of two clouds of data points with generic centroids via empirical risk minimisation in the high dimensional regime, under the assumptions of generic convex loss and convex regularisation. Each cloud…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-19 Urte Adomaityte , Gabriele Sicuro , Pierpaolo Vivo

In this work, we focus on a variant of the generalized linear model (GLM) called corrupted GLM (CGLM) with heavy-tailed features and responses. To robustify the statistical inference on this model, we propose to apply $\ell_4$-norm…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-21 Ziwei Zhu , Wenjing Zhou

The dominant approaches to text representation in natural language rely on learning embeddings on massive corpora which have convenient properties such as compositionality and distance preservation. In this paper, we develop a novel method…

Recently, high-dimensional heterogeneous data have attracted a lot of attention and discussion. Under heterogeneity, semiparametric regression is a popular choice to model data in statistics. In this paper, we take advantages of expectile…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-20 Jun Zhao , Guan'ao Yan , Yi Zhang

We address the important question of the extent to which random variables and vectors with truncated power tails retain the characteristic features of random variables and vectors with power tails. We define two truncation regimes, soft…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-20 Arijit Chakrabarty , Gennady Samorodnitsky
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