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We present new estimators of the mean of a real valued random variable, based on PAC-Bayesian iterative truncation. We analyze the non-asymptotic minimax properties of the deviations of estimators for distributions having either a bounded…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-30 Olivier Catoni

We study the problem of heavy-tailed mean estimation in settings where the variance of the data-generating distribution does not exist. Concretely, given a sample $\mathbf{X} = \{X_i\}_{i = 1}^n$ from a distribution $\mathcal{D}$ over…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-10 Yeshwanth Cherapanamjeri , Nilesh Tripuraneni , Peter L. Bartlett , Michael I. Jordan

We tackle estimating sparse coefficients in a linear regression when the covariates are sampled from an $L$-subexponential random vector. This vector belongs to a class of distributions that exhibit heavier tails than Gaussian random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-07 Takeyuki Sasai

The concept of univariate Range Value-at-Risk, presented by Cont et al. (2010), is extended in the multidimensional setting. Traditional risk measures are not well suited when dealing with heavy-tail distributions and infinite tail…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-27 Roba Bairakdar , Lu Cao , Melina Mailhot

A random variable $\xi$ has a {\it light-tailed} distribution (for short: is light-tailed) if it possesses a finite exponential moment, $\E \exp (\lambda \xi) <\infty$ for some $\lambda >0$, and has a {\it heavy-tailed} distribution (is…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-09 Sergey Foss , Michael Scheutzow , Anton Tarasenko

To provide a comprehensive summary of the tail distribution, the expected shortfall is defined as the average over the tail above (or below) a certain quantile of the distribution. The expected shortfall regression captures the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-24 Yuanzhi Li , Shushu Zhang , Xuming He

In this paper, a novel approach to the problem of estimating the heavy-tail exponent alpha>0 of a distribution is proposed. It is based on the fact that block-maxima of size m of the independent and identically distributed data scale at a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Stilian A. Stoev , George Michailidis , Murad S. Taqqu

Modern statistical analyses often encounter datasets with massive sizes and heavy-tailed distributions. For datasets with massive sizes, traditional estimation methods can hardly be used to estimate the extreme value index directly. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-26 Yongxin Li , Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li , Hansheng Wang

Recently some papers, such as Aban, Meerschaert and Panorska (2006), Nuyts (2010) and Clark (2013), have drawn attention to possible truncation in Pareto tail modelling. Sometimes natural upper bounds exist that truncate the probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-21 Jan Beirlant , Isabel Fraga Alves , Ivette Gomes

This article is devoted to the study of tail index estimation based on i.i.d. multivariate observations, drawn from a standard heavy-tailed distribution, i.e. of which 1-d Pareto-like marginals share the same tail index. A multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-04-10 Stéphan Clémençon , Antoine Dematteo

Heavy-tailed metrics are common and often critical to product evaluation in the online world. While we may have samples large enough for Central Limit Theorem to kick in, experimentation is challenging due to the wide confidence interval of…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-23 Jason , Wang , Pauline Burke

We investigate the use of optimization to compute bounds for extremal performance measures. This approach takes a non-parametric viewpoint that aims to alleviate the issue of model misspecification possibly encountered by conventional…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-03 Clementine Mottet , Henry Lam

We investigate robust nonparametric regression in the presence of heavy-tailed noise, where the hypothesis class may contain unbounded functions and robustness is ensured via a robust loss function $\ell_\sigma$. Using Huber regression as a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Yunlong Feng , Qiang Wu

We study the problem of linear regression where both covariates and responses are potentially (i) heavy-tailed and (ii) adversarially contaminated. Several computationally efficient estimators have been proposed for the simpler setting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-18 Ankit Pensia , Varun Jog , Po-Ling Loh

High-dimensional data subject to heavy-tailed phenomena and heterogeneity are commonly encountered in various scientific fields and bring new challenges to the classical statistical methods. In this paper, we combine the asymmetric square…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-02 Jun Zhao , Guan'ao Yan , Yi Zhang

For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-18 Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li , Chen Zhou

Linear regression is ubiquitous in statistical analysis. It is well understood that conflicting sources of information may contaminate the inference when the classical normality of errors is assumed. The contamination caused by the light…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-13 Philippe Gagnon , Alain Desgagné , Mylène Bédard

We generalize Quasi-Linear Means by restricting to the tail of the risk distribution and show that this can be a useful quantity in risk management since it comprises in its general form the Value at Risk, the Tail Value at Risk and the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-22 Nicole Bäuerle , Tomer Shushi

We propose and analyze a new estimator of the covariance matrix that admits strong theoretical guarantees under weak assumptions on the underlying distribution, such as existence of moments of only low order. While estimation of covariance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-17 Stanislav Minsker , Xiaohan Wei

We introduce a new class of heavy-tailed distributions for which any weighted average of independent and identically distributed random variables is larger than one such random variable in (usual) stochastic order. We show that many…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-18 Yuyu Chen , Seva Shneer