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Effective vaccine prioritization is critical for epidemic control, yet real outbreaks exhibit memory effects that inflate state space and make long-term prediction and optimization challenging. As a result, many strategies are tuned to…

Biological Physics · Physics 2025-11-11 Mi Feng , Liang Tian , Changsong Zhou

Background: Network-based interventions are most powerful against epidemics when the full network structure is known. However, resource constraints often require decisions based on partial network data. We investigated how the effectiveness…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-03-30 Yingrui Yang , Ashley McKhann , Guy Harling , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

We analyze a periodically-forced dynamical system inspired by the SIR model with impulsive vaccination. We fully characterize its dynamics according to the proportion $p$ of vaccinated individuals and the time $T$ between doses. If the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-08-02 João P. S. Maurício de Carvalho , Alexandre A. Rodrigues

If we can lower the number of people needed to vaccinate for a community to be immune against contagious diseases, we can save resources and life. A key to reach such a lower threshold of immunization is to find and vaccinate people who,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-10-10 Sungmin Lee , Luis E. C. Rocha , Fredrik Liljeros , Petter Holme

In this paper we consider SIR epidemics on random graphs with clustering. To incorporate group structure of the underlying social network, we use a generalized version of the configuration model in which each node is a member of a specified…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-15 Carolina Fransson , Pieter Trapman

We propose a new method to immunize populations or computer networks against epidemics which is more efficient than any method considered before. The novelty of our method resides in the way of determining the immunization targets. First we…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-03 Christian M. Schneider , Tamara Mihaljev , Hans J. Herrmann

Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-03-09 Kathinka Frieswijk , Lorenzo Zino , Ming Cao

In this paper, a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with identical infectivity, where each node is assigned with the same capability of active contacts, $A$, at each time step, is presented. We found that on scale-free networks,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2007-05-23 Rui Yang , Jie Ren , Wen-Jie Bai , Tao Zhou , Ming-Feng Zhang , Bing-Hong Wang

Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by…

Physics and Society · Physics 2007-05-23 Erik Volz

Since early 2020, the world has been dealing with a raging pandemic outbreak: COVID-19. A year later, vaccines have become accessible, but in limited quantities, so that governments needed to devise a strategy to decide which part of the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-04-13 Sander Tonkens , Paul de Klaver , Mauro Salazar

In many real-world complex systems, individuals have many kind of interactions among them, suggesting that it is necessary to consider a layered structure framework to model systems such as social interactions. This structure can be…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-02-06 C. Buono , L. A. Braunstein

In this paper, we propose two novel immunization strategies, i.e., combined immunization and duplex immunization, for SIS model in directed scale-free networks, and obtain the epidemic thresholds for them with linear and nonlinear…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-06-05 Wei Shi , Junbo Jia , Pan Yang , Xinchu Fu

Contact patterns in populations fundamentally influence the spread of infectious diseases. Current mathematical methods for epidemiological forecasting on networks largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed, at least for the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Erik Volz , Lauren Ancel Meyers

In this work we consider a model of epidemic spreading coupled with an opinion dynamics in a fully-connected population. Regarding the opinion dynamics, the individuals may be in two distinct states, namely in favor or against a vaccination…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-10-28 Marcelo A. Pires , Nuno Crokidakis

We consider the simple epidemiological SIS model for a general heterogeneous population introduced by Lajmanovich and Yorke (1976) in finite dimension, and its infinite dimensional generalization we introduced in previous works. In this…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-11-29 Jean-François Delmas , Dylan Dronnier , Pierre-André Zitt

Spreading processes represent a very efficient tool to investigate the structural properties of networks and the relative importance of their constituents, and have been widely used to this aim in static networks. Here we consider simple…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-09-11 Michele Starnini , Anna Machens , Ciro Cattuto , Alain Barrat , Romualdo Pastor Satorras

The study of epidemiological systems has generated deep interest in exploring the dynamical complexity of common infectious diseases driven by seasonally varying contact rates. Mathematical modeling and field observations have shown that,…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-12-22 Jorge Duarte , Cristina Januário , Nuno Martins , Jesús Seoane , Miguel AF Sanjuán

In this paper, we study the optimal control for an SEIR model adapted to the vaccination strategy of susceptible individuals. There are factors associated with a vaccination campaign that make this strategy not only a public health issue…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-11-08 Nelson L. Santos Junior , João A. M. Gondim

The resurgence of measles is largely attributed to the decline in vaccine adoption and the increase in mobility. Although the vaccine for measles is readily available and highly successful, its current adoption is not adequate to prevent…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-08-26 Sheryl L. Chang , Mahendra Piraveenan , Mikhail Prokopenko

This paper presents a vaccination-based control strategy for a SEIR (susceptible plus infected plus infectious plus removed populations) propagation disease model. The model takes into account the total population amounts as a refrain for…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2011-03-28 M. De la Sen , A. Ibeas , S. Alonso-Quesada