English

Vaccinating according to the maximal endemic equilibrium achieves herd immunity

Dynamical Systems 2022-11-29 v1 Analysis of PDEs Populations and Evolution

Abstract

We consider the simple epidemiological SIS model for a general heterogeneous population introduced by Lajmanovich and Yorke (1976) in finite dimension, and its infinite dimensional generalization we introduced in previous works. In this model the basic reproducing number R0R_0 is given by the spectral radius of an integral operator. If R0>1R_0>1, then there exists a maximal endemic equilibrium. In this very general heterogeneous SIS model, we prove that vaccinating according to the profile of this maximal endemic equilibrium ensures herd immunity. Moreover, this vaccination strategy is critical: the resulting effective reproduction number is exactly equal to one. As an application, we estimate that if R0=2R_0 = 2 in an age-structured community with mixing rates fitted to social activity, applying this strategy would require approximately 29% less vaccine doses than the strategy which consists in vaccinating uniformly a proportion 11/R01 - 1/R_0 of the population. From a dynamical systems point of view, we prove that the non-maximality of an equilibrium gg is equivalent to its linear instability in the original dynamics, and to the linear instability of the disease-free state in the modified dynamics where we vaccinate according to gg.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2211.15463,
  title  = {Vaccinating according to the maximal endemic equilibrium achieves herd immunity},
  author = {Jean-François Delmas and Dylan Dronnier and Pierre-André Zitt},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2211.15463},
  year   = {2022}
}

Comments

arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2103.10330