Related papers: Viewing Simpson's Paradox
We extend path analysis by showing that, for a singly-connected path diagram, the partial covariance of two random variables factorizes over the nodes and edges in the path between the variables. This result allows us to determine the…
Inferring causal models from observed correlations is a challenging task, crucial to many areas of science. In order to alleviate the computational effort when sifting through possible causal explanations for some given observations, it is…
Established frameworks to understand problems with reproducibility in science begin with the relationship between our understanding of the prior probability of a claim and the statistical certainty that should be demanded of it, and explore…
The two envelopes paradox is discussed. By calculating the conditional probability, we arrive at a conditional expectations which differs from existing results.
In statistical mechanics, the generally called Stirling approximation is actually an approximation of Stirling's formula. In this article, it is shown that the term that is dropped is in fact the one that takes fluctuations into account.…
This paper discusses the dual interpretation of the Jeffreys--Lindley's paradox associated with Bayesian posterior probabilities and Bayes factors, both as a differentiation between frequentist and Bayesian statistics and as a pointer to…
The "paradox" arises in the Two Envelopes Paradox from the incorrect formulation of the argument. The infomation given is misused and therefore the results are incorrect for the question asked. The key is to be clear on what question we are…
This paper is concerned with the well known Jeffreys-Lindley paradox. In a Bayesian set up, the so-called paradox arises when a point null hypothesis is tested and an objective prior is sought for the alternative hypothesis. In particular,…
In Mathematics is common to make a mistake and therefore a false conclusion arises. In each case it is important to recognize the mistake in order to avoid a similar one in the future. Geometric figures provide decisive help in order to…
We analyze the mixing properties of growing networks and find that, in some cases, the assortativity patterns are reversed once links' direction is considered: the disassortative behavior observed in such networks is a spurious effect, and…
The Simpson's formula is obtained by approximating the integral of a function on some interval by the integral of the quadratic polynomial determined by the function. However, a multidimensional analogue of the formula has not been given as…
In this paper, I will demonstrate a new perspective on the Two Envelope Problem. I hope to show with convincing clarity how the paradox results from an inherent problem pertaining to the interpretation of Bayesian probability. Specifically,…
Quantum three box paradox is a prototypical example of some bizarre predictions for intermediate measurements made on pre- and post-selected systems. Although in principle those effects can be explained by measurement disturbance, it is not…
The apparently trifling unexpected hanging paradox has generated an enormous philosophical literature. We introduce the mathematician to this literature, paying special attention to aspects that involve nontrivial mathematics. This xxx…
We give a natural definition of a Poisson Differential Algebra. Consistence conditions are formulated in geometrical terms. It is found that one can often locally put the Poisson structure on differential calculus in a simple canonical form…
When a linear model is adjusted to control for additional explanatory variables the sign of a fitted coefficient may reverse. Here these reversals are studied using coefficients of determination. The resulting theory can be used to…
Many writers have observed that default logics appear to contain the "lottery paradox" of probability theory. This arises when a default "proof by contradiction" lets us conclude that a typical X is not a Y where Y is an unusual subclass of…
Zipf's law, which states that the probability of an observation is inversely proportional to its rank, has been observed in many domains. While there are models that explain Zipf's law in each of them, those explanations are typically…
Confounding seriously impairs our ability to learn about causal relations from observational data. Confounding can be defined as a statistical association between two variables due to inputs from a common source (the confounder). For…
We show that boson correlations from quantum states with a Glauber-Sudarshan representation of their density matrix which provides a well-behaved probability distribution -- including coherent states, thermal states, and all states that can…