Related papers: A Model of Sunspot Number with Modified Logistic F…
The sunspot number varies roughly periodically with time. However the individual cycle durations and the amplitudes are found to vary in an irregular manner. It is observed that the stronger cycles are having shorter rise times and vice…
Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during…
Long-term sunspot observations are key to understand and predict the solar activities and its effects on the space weather.Consistent observations which are crucial for long-term variations studies,are generally not available due to…
It is known that the tilt angles of active regions increase with their latitude (Joy's law). It has never been checked before, however, whether the average tilt angles change from one cycle to another. Flux transport models show the…
We analyzed temporal and periodic behavior of sunspot counts (SSCs) in flaring (C, M, or X class flares), and non-flaring active regions (ARs) for the almost two solar cycles (1996 through 2016). Our main findings are as follows: i) The…
We describe a new tool developed for solar flare forecasting on the base of some sunspot group properties. Assuming that the flare frequency follows the Poisson statistics, this tool uses a database containing the morphological…
In 1965 Paul D. Jose published his discovery that both the motion of the Sun about the center of mass of the solar system and periods comprised of eight Hale magnetic sunspot cycles with a mean period of ~22.37 years have a matching…
We analyzed the daily sunspot-group data reported by the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during the period 1977-2017 and studied North-South asymmetry in the…
We analyzed the daily sunspot-group data reported by the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheligraphic Data (DPD) during the period 1977-2017, and the revised Version-2 of ISSN during…
Observing and counting sunspots constitutes one of the longest-running scientific experiment, with first observations dating back to Galileo and the invention of the telescope around 1610. Today the sunspot number (SN) time series acts as a…
The short-term periodicities of the daily sunspot area fluctuations from August 1923 to October 1933 are discussed. For these data the correlative analysis indicates negative correlation for the periodicity of about 155 days, but the power…
The Sunspot Number, created by R.Wolf in 1849, provides a direct long-term record of solar activity from 1700 to the present. In spite of its central role in multiple studies of the solar dynamo and of the past Sun-Earth relations, it was…
Context. Solar activity, dominated by the 11-year cyclic evolution, has been observed directly since 1610. Before that, indirect cosmogenic proxy data are used to reconstruct it over millennia. Recently, the precision of radiocarbon…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and the Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the…
We discuss a prediction of the solar activity on a short time-scale applying the method based on a combination of a nonlinear mean-field dynamo model and the artificial neural network. The artificial neural network which serves as a…
Aims. We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods. We measure the axial dipole moment using…
More than 70 years ago it was recognised that ionospheric F2-layer critical frequencies $foF2$ had a strong relationship to sunspot number. Using historic datasets from the Slough and Washington ionosondes, we evaluate the best statistical…
Data from three solar observatories, Learmonth, Holloman, and San Vito, are used to study the variations in the average number of sunspots per sunspot group. It is found that the different types of sunspot groups and the number of sunspots…
We attempt to establish links between a summary curve, or modulus summary curve, MSC, of the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) derived from Principal Component Analysis, with the averaged sunspot numbers (SSN). The comparison of MSC…
Several energy management applications rely on accurate photovoltaic generation forecasts. Common metrics like mean absolute error or root-mean-square error, omit error-distribution details needed for stochastic optimization. In addition,…