English

Tests of Sunspot Number Sequences: 1. Using Ionosonde Data

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics 2016-03-23 v1

Abstract

More than 70 years ago it was recognised that ionospheric F2-layer critical frequencies foF2foF2 had a strong relationship to sunspot number. Using historic datasets from the Slough and Washington ionosondes, we evaluate the best statistical fits of foF2foF2 to sunspot numbers (at each Universal Time [UT] separately) in order to search for drifts and abrupt changes in the fit residuals over Solar Cycles 17 - 21. Polynomial fits are made both with and without allowance for the white-light facular area, which has been reported as being associated with cycle-to-cycle changes in the sunspot number - foF2foF2 relationship. Over the interval studied here, the ISN, RR, the backbone group number RbbRbb, and the corrected number RcRc largely differ in their allowance for the 'Waldmeier discontinuity' around 1945 (the correction factor for which for RR, RbbRbb and RcRc is, respectively, zero, effectively over 20%, and explicitly 11.6%). It is shown that for Solar Cycles 18 - 21, all three sunspot data sequences perform well, but that the fit residuals are lowest and most uniform for RbbRbb. We here use foF2foF2 for those UTs for which RR, RbbRbb, and RcRc all give correlations exceeding 0.99 for intervals both before and after the Waldmeier discontinuity. The error introduced by the Waldmeier discontinuity causes RR to underestimate the fitted values based on the foF2foF2 data for 1932 - 1945 but RbbRbb overestimates them by almost the same factor, implying that the correction for the Waldmeier discontinuity inherent in RbbRbb is too large by a factor of two. Fit residuals are smallest and most uniform for RcRc and the ionospheric data support the optimum discontinuity multiplicative correction factor derived from the independent Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) sunspot group data for the same interval.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1601.06441,
  title  = {Tests of Sunspot Number Sequences: 1. Using Ionosonde Data},
  author = {M. Lockwood and C. J. Scott and M. J. Owens and L. Barnard and D. M. Willis},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1601.06441},
  year   = {2016}
}

Comments

35 pages, 11 figures

R2 v1 2026-06-22T12:35:43.107Z