Related papers: Exploring Dependence Structures in the Internation…
We develop a model in which country-specific tariffs shape trade flows, prices, and welfare in a global economy with one homogeneous good. Trade flows form a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), and tariffs influence not only market outcomes but…
The recent financial crisis has stressed the need to understand financial systems as networks of interdependent countries, where cross-border financial linkages play the fundamental role. It has also been emphasized that the relevance of…
Where do new markets come from? I construct a network model in which national markets are nodes and flows of recorded music between them are links and conduct a longitudinal analysis of the global pattern of trade in the period 1976 to…
In this paper, we investigate the mesoscale structure of the World Trade Network. In this framework, a specific role is assumed by short and long-range interactions, and hence by the distance, between countries. Therefore, we identify…
Misperceptions about extreme dependencies between different financial assets have been an im- portant element of the recent financial crisis. This paper studies inhomogeneity in dependence structures using Markov switching regular vine…
Input Output (IO) tables provide a standardised way of looking at monetary flows between all industries in an economy. IO tables can be thought of as networks - with the nodes being different industries and the edges being the flows between…
Analyzing available FAO data from 176 countries over 21 years, we observe an increase of complexity in the international trade of maize, rice, soy, and wheat. A larger number of countries play a role as producers or intermediaries, either…
Financial markets are a typical example of complex systems where interactions between constituents lead to many remarkable features. Here, we show that a pairwise maximum entropy model (or auto-logistic model) is able to describe switches…
In a system containing a large number of interacting stochastic processes, there will typically be many non-zero correlation coefficients. This makes it difficult to either visualize the system's inter-dependencies, or identify its dominant…
Networked structures arise in a wide array of different contexts such as technological and transportation infrastructures, social phenomena, and biological systems. These highly interconnected systems have recently been the focus of a great…
In recent decades, trade between nations has constituted an important component of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with official estimates showing that it likely accounted for a quarter of total global production. While evidence of…
Complex networks describe a wide range of systems in nature and society, much quoted examples including the cell, a network of chemicals linked by chemical reactions, or the Internet, a network of routers and computers connected by physical…
This paper introduces a novel method for estimating material flows, with a focus on tracing phosphate flows from mining countries to those using phosphate in agricultural production. Our approach integrates data on phosphate rock…
We present a new approach to estimating the interdependence of industries in an economy by applying data science solutions. By exploiting interfirm buyer--seller network data, we show that the problem of estimating the interdependence of…
We demonstrate using multi-layered networks, the existence of an empirical linkage between the dynamics of the financial network constructed from the market indices and the macroeconomic networks constructed from macroeconomic variables…
Social interactions vary in time and appear to be driven by intrinsic mechanisms, which in turn shape the emerging structure of the social network. Large-scale empirical observations of social interaction structure have become possible only…
Previous network models have imagined that connections change to promote structural balance, or to reflect hierarchies. We propose a model where agents adjust their connections to appear credible to an external observer. In particular, we…
International trade has been increasingly organized in the form of global value chains (GVCs) where different stages of production are located in different countries. This recent phenomenon has substantial consequences for both trade policy…
Spatially embedded networks are shaped by a combination of purely topological (space-independent) and space-dependent formation rules. While it is quite easy to artificially generate networks where the relative importance of these two…
Accurate and interpretable forecasting models predicting spatially and temporally fine-grained changes in the numbers of intrastate conflict casualties are of crucial importance for policymakers and international non-governmental…