Related papers: Exploring Dependence Structures in the Internation…
We investigate structural features and processes associated with the onset of systemic conflict using an approach which integrates complex systems theory with network modeling and analysis. We present a signed network model of cooperation…
Complex numbers define the relationship between entities in many situations. A canonical example would be the off-diagonal terms in a Hamiltonian matrix in quantum physics. Recent years have seen an increasing interest to extend the tools…
Global trade is shaped by a complex mix of factors beyond supply and demand, including tangible variables like transport costs and tariffs, as well as less quantifiable influences such as political and economic relations. Traditionally,…
International economics has a long history of improving our understanding of factors causing trade, and the consequences of free flow of goods and services across countries. The recent shocks to the free trade regime, especially trade…
Energy security and energy trade are the cornerstones of global economic and social development. The structural robustness of the international oil trade network (iOTN) plays an important role in the global economy. We integrate the machine…
The structure of the International Trade Network (ITN), whose nodes and links represent world countries and their trade relations respectively, affects key economic processes worldwide, including globalization, economic integration,…
This paper reviews the main network analysis methods used to measure structural power, which refers to the ability to shape outcomes through network position and influence, and the ability to affect others through network connections. These…
We consider a nonlinear dynamical system on a signed graph, which can be interpreted as a mathematical model of social networks in which the links can have both positive and negative connotations. In accordance with a concept from social…
Recurrent or ephemeral water shortages are a crucial global challenge, in particular because of their impacts on food production. The global character of this challenge is reflected in the trade among nations of virtual water, i.e. the…
Predicting the future evolution of complex systems is one of the main challenges in complexity science. Based on a current snapshot of a network, link prediction algorithms aim to predict its future evolution. We apply here link prediction…
This study examines the effects of de-globalization trends on international trade networks and their role in improving forecasts for economic growth. Using section-level trade data from nearly 200 countries from 2010 to 2022, we identify…
The topology of production networks determines the propagation mechanisms of local shocks and thus the co-movement of industries. As a result, we need a more precisely defined production network to model economic growth accurately. In this…
We exploit the symmetry concepts developed in the companion review of this article to introduce a stochastic version of link reversal symmetry, which leads to an improved understanding of the reciprocity of directed networks. We apply our…
The study of international relations by definition deals with interdependencies among countries. One form of interdependence between countries is the diffusion of country-level features, such as policies, political regimes, or conflict. In…
This paper presents a novel methodology for predicting international bilateral trade flows, emphasizing the growing importance of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) in the global trade landscape. Acknowledging the limitations of…
In a spatially embedded network, that is a network where nodes can be uniquely determined in a system of coordinates, links' weights might be affected by metric distances coupling every pair of nodes (dyads). In order to assess to what…
We propose an interpretable machine learning framework to help identify trade data discrepancies that are challenging to detect with traditional methods. Our system analyzes trade data to find a novel inverse price-volume signature, a…
In this paper, we adopt a latent variable method to formulate a network model with arbitrarily dependent structure. We assume that the latent variables follow a multivariate normal distribution and a link between two nodes forms if the sum…
Statistical mechanics provides a useful analog for understanding the behavior of complex adaptive systems, including power markets and the power systems they intend to govern. Transaction-based control is founded on the conjecture that the…
Despite the tremendous advancements in the field of network theory, very few studies have taken weights in the interactions into consideration that emerge naturally in all real world systems. Using random matrix analysis of a weighted…