Related papers: Extreme Value Analysis of Solar Flare Events
Solar flares are accompanied by an enhanced emission of electromagnetic waves from the radio up to the gamma-ray range. The associated hard X-ray (HXR) and microwave radiation is generated by energetic electrons, which carry a substantial…
The extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) late phase of solar flares is a second peak of warm coronal emissions (e.g., Fe XVI) for many minutes to a few hours after the GOES soft X-ray peak. It was first observed by the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE)…
Solar flares, along with other sun-originated events such as Coronal Mass Ejections, fast solar wind streams, and solar energetic particles are among the most relevant events in Space Weather. Moreover, solar flares are the most energetic…
Although the fundamental probabilistic theory of extremes has been well developed, there are many practical considerations that must be addressed in application. The contribution of this thesis is four-fold. The first concerns the choice of…
In analyses of rare-events, regardless of the domain of application, class-imbalance issue is intrinsic. Although the challenges are known to data experts, their explicit impact on the analytic and the decisions made based on the findings…
The extreme ultraviolet portion of the solar spectrum contains a wealth of diagnostic tools for probing the lower solar atmosphere in response to an injection of energy, particularly during the impulsive phase of solar flares. These include…
We present a statistical analysis of near-relativistic (NR) solar energetic electron event spectra near 1au. We use measurements of the STEREO Solar Electron and Proton Telescope (SEPT) in the energyrange of 45-425 keV and utilize the SEPT…
A new survival probability function of ICs under space ion impact is proposed. Unlike the conventional approach, the function is based on the extreme value statistics which is rele-vant to the critical single event effects.
Extreme-ultraviolet late phase (ELP) refers to the second extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) radiation enhancement observed in certain solar flares, which usually occurs tens of minutes to several hours after the peak of soft X-ray emission. The…
Combining strengths from deep learning and extreme value theory can help describe complex relationships between variables where extreme events have significant impacts (e.g., environmental or financial applications). Neural networks learn…
In this work, we use two decadal sunspot number series reconstructed from cosmogenic radionuclide data (14C in tree trunks, SN-14C and 10Be in polar ice, SN-10Be) and the Extreme Value Theory to study variability of solar activity during…
Introducing thresholds to analyze time series of emission from the Sun enables a new and simple definition of solar flare events, and their interoccurrence times. Rescaling time by the rate of events, the waiting and quiet time…
Solar flares, especially C, M, and X class, pose significant risks to satellite operations, communication systems, and power grids. We present a novel approach for predicting extreme solar flares using HMI intensitygrams and magnetograms.…
In this study, we begin a comprehensive characterisation of temperature extremes in Ireland for the period 1981-2010. We produce return levels of anomalies of daily maximum temperature extremes for an area over Ireland, for the 30-year…
Understanding space weather is vital for the protection of our terrestrial and space infrastructure. In order to predict space weather accurately, large amounts of data are required, particularly in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectrum.…
Observations over the past two solar cycles show a highly irregular pattern of occurrence for major solar flares, gamma-ray events, and solar energetic particle (SEP) fluences. Such phenomena do not appear to follow the direct indices of…
Among the eruptive activity phenomena observed on the Sun, the most technology threatening ones are flares with associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs). Flares with associated CMEs and SEPs are produced…
Solar magnetic activity produces extreme solar flares and coronal mass ejections, which pose grave threats to electronic infrastructure and can significantly disrupt economic activity. It is therefore important to appreciate the triggers of…
There is substantial empirical and climatological evidence that precipitation extremes have become more extreme during the twentieth century, and that this trend is likely to continue as global warming becomes more intense. However,…
Applying a modification of Extreme value Theory (thanks to a dual distribution technique by the authors on data over the past 2,500 years, we show that pandemics are extremely fat-tailed in terms of fatalities, with a marked potentially…