Related papers: Extreme Value Analysis of Solar Flare Events
Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are one of the most crucial aspects of space weather that require continuous monitoring and forecasting using robust methods. We demonstrate a proof of concept of using a data-driven supervised…
We present a statistical analysis of properties of Soft X-Ray (SXR) emission, plasma temperature (T), and emission measure (EM), derived from GOES observations of flares in 2002-2017. The temperature and emission measures are obtained using…
Motivated by the EVA 2025 Data Challenge, we address the problem of predicting extreme rainfall in the eastern United States using data from a large ensemble of climate model runs. The challenge focuses on three quantities of interest…
Solar based electricity generations have experienced strong and impactful growth in recent years. The regulation, scheduling, dispatching, and unit commitment of intermittent solar power is dependent on the accuracy of the forecasting…
The second peak in the Fe XVI 33.5 nm line irradiance observed during solar flares by Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) is known as Extreme UltraViolet (EUV) late phase. Our previous paper (Liu et al. 2013) found that the…
Computing the return times of extreme events and assessing the impact of climate change on such return times is fundamental to extreme event attribution studies. However, the rarity of such events in the observational record makes this task…
Extreme value theory for chaotic dynamical systems is a rapidly expanding area of research. Given a system and a real function (observable) defined on its phase space, extreme value theory studies the limit probabilistic laws obeyed by…
One of the defining characteristics of a solar flare is the impulsive formation of very high temperature plasma. The properties of the thermal emission are not well understood, however, and the analysis of solar flare observations is often…
Observations of the Sun and of Sun-like stars provide access to different aspects of stellar magnetic activity that, when combined, help us piece together a more comprehensive picture than can be achieved from only the solar or the stellar…
We explore some of the ramifications arising from superflares on the evolutionary history of Earth, other planets in the Solar system, and exoplanets. We propose that the most powerful superflares can serve as plausible drivers of…
Extreme space weather events including $\ge$X5.0 flares, ground level enhancement (GLE) events and super geomagnetic storms (Dst $\le$ -250 nT) caused by super active regions (SARs) during solar cycles 21-24 were studied. The total number…
Extreme events generated by complex systems have been intensively studied in many fields due to their great impact on scientific research and our daily lives. However, their prediction is still a challenge in spite of the tremendous…
Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are known to occur following solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). However some high-energy solar events do not result in SEPs being detected at Earth, and it is these types of event which may…
Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) has garnered significant attention in recent years due to the growing interest in deploying RL agents in real-world scenarios. A critical aspect of risk awareness involves modeling highly rare risk…
Accurate and reliable solar flare predictions are essential to mitigate potential impacts on critical infrastructure. However, the current performance of solar flare forecasting is insufficient. In this study, we address the task of…
Numerical climate models are complex and combine a large number of physical processes. They are key tools in quantifying the relative contribution of potential anthropogenic causes (e.g., the current increase in greenhouse gases) on high…
This paper investigates the onset time of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with numerical simulations, and analyses the accuracy of the Velocity Dispersion Analysis (VDA) method. Using a 3-dimensional focused transport model, we…
The study of the extreme weather space events is important for a technological dependent society. Extreme Value Theory could be decisive to characterize those extreme events in order to have the knowledge to make decisions in technological,…
Multiple studies have now demonstrated that machine learning (ML) can give improved skill for predicting or simulating fairly typical weather events, for tasks such as short-term and seasonal weather forecasting, downscaling simulations to…
Solar flares strongly affect the Sun's atmosphere as well as the Earth's environment. Quantifying the maximum possible energy of solar flares of the present-day Sun, if any, is thus a key question in heliophysics. The largest solar flares…