Related papers: Extreme Value Analysis of Solar Flare Events
Space weather phenomena such as solar flares, have massive destructive power when reaches certain amount of magnitude. Such high magnitude solar flare event can interfere space-earth radio communications and neutralize space-earth…
Extreme space weather events on Earth occur during intervals of strong solar wind driving. The solar wind drives plasma convection and currents in the near-Earth space environment. For low values of the driver, the Earth's response is…
We analyze statistically extreme time-integrated Ap events in 1958-2007, which occurred during both strong and weak geomagnetic storms. The tail of the distribution of such events can be accurately fitted by a power-law with a sharp upper…
Modeling and predicting solar events, particularly the solar ramping event, is critical for improving situational awareness for solar power generation systems. It has been acknowledged that weather conditions such as temperature, humidity,…
Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…
Space weather, driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), poses significant risks to technological systems. Accurately forecasting these events and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere remains a challenge because of the…
Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…
Extreme event attribution (EEA), an approach for assessing the extent to which disasters are caused by climate change, is crucial for informing climate policy and legal proceedings. Machine learning is increasingly used for EEA by modeling…
For the past six years, the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory has been monitoring changes in the Sun's extreme ultraviolet output over a range of timescales. Its primary function is to provide…
This paper presents an innovative approach to extreme precipitation nowcasting by employing Transformer-based generative models, namely NowcastingGPT with Extreme Value Loss (EVL) regularization. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset from the…
By coupling the EUropean Heliospheric FORcasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) and the improved Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (iPATH) model, two energetic storm particle (ESP) events, originating from the same active…
Extreme value analysis is an essential methodology in the study of rare and extreme events, which hold significant interest in various fields, particularly in the context of environmental sciences. Models that employ the exceedances of…
A proper channel modeling methodology that characterizes the statistics of extreme events is key in the design of a system at an ultra-reliable regime of operation. The strict constraint of ultra-reliability corresponds to the packet error…
The solar X-ray irradiance is significantly heightened during the course of a solar flare, which can cause radio blackouts due to ionization of the atoms in the ionosphere. As the duration of a solar flare is not related to the size of that…
Extreme value theory (EVT) provides an elegant mathematical tool for the statistical analysis of rare events. When data are collected from multiple population subgroups, because some subgroups may have less data available for extreme value…
We have evaluated the energetics of 38 solar eruptive events observed by a variety of spacecraft instruments between February 2002 and December 2006, as accurately as the observations allow. The measured energetic components include: (1)…
We present further considerations regarding the strong 14C variation in AD 774/5. For its cause, either a solar super-flare or a short Gamma-Ray Burst were suggested. We show that all kinds of stellar or neutron star flares would be too…
Solar flares are explosions on the Sun. They happen when energy stored in magnetic fields around solar active regions (ARs) is suddenly released. In this paper, we present a transformer-based framework, named SolarFlareNet, for predicting…
Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and/or solar flares. SEPs travel through the corona and interplanetary space to reach Earth, posing a radiation hazard to spacecraft and astronauts…
The sporadic large fluctuations are seen in the stock market due to changes in fundamental parameters, technical setups, and external factors. These large fluctuations are termed as Extreme Events (EE). The EEs may be positive or negative…