Related papers: Extreme Value Analysis of Solar Flare Events
This section shows an overview of a recent development of the studies on great space weather events in history. Its discussion starts from the Carrington event and compare its intensity with the extreme storms within the coverage of the…
Conventional methods for extreme event estimation rely on well-chosen parametric models asymptotically justified from extreme value theory (EVT). These methods, while powerful and theoretically grounded, could however encounter a difficult…
\textit{Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer} Deep Survey observations of cool stars (spectral type F to M) have been used to investigate the distribution of coronal flare rates in energy and its relation to activity indicators and rotation…
Solar Energetic Particle events (SEPs) are among the most dangerous transient phenomena of solar activity. As hazardous radiation, SEPs may affect the health of astronauts in outer space and adversely impact current and future space…
From environmental sciences to finance, there is a growing demand for methods that can assess the risks of extreme events beyond those observed in available data. Extrapolating extreme events beyond the range of the data is not obvious.…
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) issues the official U.S. government forecast for M-class and X-class solar flares, yet the skill of these forecasts has never been comprehensively verified. In this study, we evaluate the SWPC…
These notes are based on lectures delivered by G. Schehr at the XVIth School on Fundamental Problems in Statistical Physics (FPSP), held in Oropa (Italy) from 30 June to 11 July 2025. After a brief introduction to extreme value statistics…
Temporally-resolved electron density measurements of solar flare plasmas are presented using data from the EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The EVE spectral range contains emission lines formed…
Extreme solar particle events reveal that the Sun can occasionally produce eruptions significantly more energetic than those observed in the modern era. These events are thought to originate from powerful coronal mass ejections, typically…
Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are an important component of Space Weather, including radiation hazard to humans and electronic equipment, and the ionisation of the Earth's atmosphere. We review the key observations of SEPs, our current…
We assess the predictive capabilities of various classes of avalanche models for solar flares. We demonstrate that avalanche models cannot generally be used to predict specific events due to their high sensitivity to their embedded…
Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are related to flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This work is a new investigation of statistical relationships between SEP peak intensities - deka-MeV protons and near-relativistic electrons -…
A second peak in extreme ultraviolet sometimes appears during the gradual phase of solar flares, which is known as EUV late phase (ELP). Stereotypically ELP is associated with two separated sets of flaring loops with distinct sizes, and it…
Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…
Naveau et al. (2016) have recently developed a class of methods, based on extreme-value theory (EVT), for capturing low, moderate, and heavy rainfall simultaneously, without the need to choose a threshold typical to EVT methods. We analyse…
Observations relating the characteristics of electrons seen near Earth (SEPs) and those producing flare radiation show that in certain (prompt) events the origin of both population appears to be the flare site, which show strong correlation…
Generating accurate extremes from an observational data set is crucial when seeking to estimate risks associated with the occurrence of future extremes which could be larger than those already observed. Applications range from the…
The Sun continuously affects the interplanetary environment through a host of interconnected and dynamic physical processes. Solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are among the key drivers of…
The Sun offers a convenient nearby laboratory to study the physical processes of particle acceleration and impulsive energy release in magnetized plasmas that occur throughout the universe, from planetary magnetospheres to black hole…
A Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction has been developed, which uses only the event statistics of flares already observed. The method is simple, objective, and makes few ad hoc assumptions. It is argued that this approach should be…