Related papers: Game-Theoretic Capital Asset Pricing in Continuous…
The aim of this work consists in the study of the optimal investment strategy for a behavioural investor, whose preference towards risk is described by both a probability distortion and an S-shaped utility function. Within a continuous-time…
We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing…
We introduce a simple and tractable methodology for estimating semiparametric conditional latent factor models. Our approach disentangles the roles of characteristics in capturing factor betas of asset returns from ``alpha.'' We construct…
We consider a conditional factor model for a multivariate portfolio of United States equities in the context of analysing a statistical arbitrage trading strategy. A state space framework underlies the factor model whereby asset returns are…
We present a simple dynamical model of stock index returns which is grounded on the ability of the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earning (CAPE) valuation ratio devised by Robert Shiller to predict long-horizon performances of the market. More…
The speculation game is an agent-based toy model to investigate the dynamics of the financial market. Our model has achieved the reproduction of 10 of the well-known stylized facts for financial time series. However, there is also a…
We study multistep Bayesian betting strategies in coin-tossing games in the framework of game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We show that by a countable mixture of these strategies, a gambler or an investor can exploit…
Market efficiency at least requires the absence of weak arbitrage opportunities, but this is not sufficient to establish a situation where the market is sensitive, i.e., where it "fully reflects" or "rapidly adjusts to" some information…
The paper predicts an Efficient Market Property for the equity market, where stocks, when denominated in units of the growth optimal portfolio (GP), have zero instantaneous expected returns. Well-diversified equity portfolios are shown to…
We present a non-probabilistic, pathwise approach to continuous-time finance based on causal functional calculus. We introduce a definition of self-financing, free from any integration concept and show that the value of a self-financing…
In finance, the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis asserts that historic stock price and volume data cannot inform predictions of future prices. In this paper we show that, to the contrary, future intra-day stock prices could be…
To investigate a time-consistent optimal strategy for the continuous time mean-variance model, we develop a new method to establish the Bellman principle. Based on this new method, we obtain a time-consistent dynamic optimal strategy that…
Suppose you are a fund manager with \$100 million to deploy and two years to invest it. A deal comes across your desk that looks appealing but costs \$50 million -- half of your available capital. Should you take it, or wait for something…
We investigate the impact of capital gains taxes on optimal investment decisions in a quite simple model. Namely, we consider a risk neutral investor who owns one risky stock from which she assumes that it has a lower expected return than…
The paper has 2 main goals: 1. We propose a variant of the CAPM based on coherent risk. 2. In addition to the real-world measure and the risk-neutral measure, we propose the third one: the extreme measure. The introduction of this measure…
We present different versions of a conjecture which would express that first price mechanisms never work very badly in a very general class of problems. The definitions include most of the problems where there is a principal (seller) who…
An asset pricing model using long-run capital share growth risk has recently been found to successfully explain U.S. stock returns. Our paper adopts a recursive preference utility framework to derive an heterogeneous asset pricing model…
AI agents are increasingly deployed in complex, interactive environments, yet their runtime remains a major bottleneck for training, evaluation, and real-world use. Typical agent behavior unfolds sequentially, with each action requiring an…
Algorithmic trading in modern financial markets is widely acknowledged to exhibit strategic, game-theoretic behaviors whose complexity can be difficult to model. A recent series of papers (Chriss, 2024b,c,a, 2025) has made progress in the…
We introduce a trade strategy representation theorem for performance measurement and portable alpha in high frequency trading, by embedding a robust trading algorithm that describe portfolio manager market timing behavior, in a canonical…