Related papers: Nonparametric Bayesian volatility estimation
Bayesian nonparametric methods are a popular choice for analysing survival data due to their ability to flexibly model the distribution of survival times. These methods typically employ a nonparametric prior on the survival function that is…
We investigate an empirical Bayesian nonparametric approach to a family of linear inverse problems with Gaussian prior and Gaussian noise. We consider a class of Gaussian prior probability measures with covariance operator indexed by a…
We study the parameter estimation for parabolic, linear, second-order, stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) observing a mild solution on a discrete grid in time and space. A high-frequency regime is considered where the mesh of…
We propose a two stage procedure for the estimation of the parameters of a fairly general, continuous-time stochastic volatility. An important ingredient of the proposed method is the Cuchiero-Teichmann volatility estimator, which is based…
A method for sequential Bayesian inference of the static parameters of a dynamic state space model is proposed. The method is based on the observation that many dynamic state space models have a relatively small number of static parameters…
Gaussian graphical models have been used to study intrinsic dependence among several variables, but the Gaussianity assumption may be restrictive in many applications. A nonparanormal graphical model is a semiparametric generalization for…
We take a new look at the problem of disentangling the volatility and jumps processes of daily stock returns. We first provide a computational framework for the univariate stochastic volatility model with Poisson-driven jumps that offers a…
A new methodology for model determination in decomposable graphical Gaussian models is developed. The Bayesian paradigm is used and, for each given graph, a hyper inverse Wishart prior distribution on the covariance matrix is considered.…
Jump diffusion processes are widely used to model asset prices over time, mainly for their ability to capture complex discontinuous behavior, but inference on the model parameters remains a challenge. Here our goal is posterior inference on…
We develop a variational Bayes approach for dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional regression models with time-varying parameters and predictors that exhibit a predefined group structure. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we…
In this work, we propose a model for estimating volatility from financial time series, extending the non-Gaussian family of space-state models with exact marginal likelihood proposed by Gamerman, Santos and Franco (2013). On the literature…
Consider discrete time observations (X_{\ell\delta})_{1\leq \ell \leq n+1}$ of the process $X$ satisfying $dX_t= \sqrt{V_t} dB_t$, with $V_t$ a one-dimensional positive diffusion process independent of the Brownian motion $B$. For both the…
Local volatility is an important quantity in option pricing, portfolio hedging, and risk management. It is not directly observable from the market; hence calibrations of local volatility models are necessary using observable market data.…
Variable selection and classification are common objectives in the analysis of high-dimensional data. Most such methods make distributional assumptions that may not be compatible with the diverse families of distributions data can take. A…
For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…
The partially observed linear Gaussian system of stochastic differential equations with low noise in observations is considered. A kernel-type estimators are used for estimation of the quadratic variation of the derivative of the limit of…
In this paper, we introduce a method for segmenting time series data using tools from Bayesian nonparametrics. We consider the task of temporal segmentation of a set of time series data into representative stationary segments. We use…
We propose a Bayesian non-parametric approach for modeling the distribution of multiple returns. In particular, we use an asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC) model to estimate the time-varying correlations of financial returns…
The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…
Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…