Related papers: Nonparametric Bayesian volatility estimation
We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…
We introduce time-inhomogeneous stochastic volatility models, in which the volatility is described by a nonnegative function of a Volterra type continuous Gaussian process that may have very rough sample paths. The main results obtained in…
The paper develops new methods of non-parametric estimation a compound Poisson distribution. Such a problem arise, in particular, in the inference of a Levy process recorded at equidistant time intervals. Our key estimator is based on…
In this article, we primarily propose a novel Bayesian characterization of stationary and nonstationary stochastic processes. In practice, this theory aims to distinguish between global stationarity and nonstationarity for both parametric…
In this paper we propose a new methodology for solving a discrete time stochastic Markovian control problem under model uncertainty. By utilizing the Dirichlet process, we model the unknown distribution of the underlying stochastic process…
We provide a nonparametric method for the computation of instantaneous multivariate volatility for continuous semi-martingales, which is based on Fourier analysis. The co-volatility is reconstructed as a stochastic function of time by…
Likelihood-based inference in stochastic non-linear dynamical systems, such as those found in chemical reaction networks and biological clock systems, is inherently complex and has largely been limited to small and unrealistically simple…
This paper presents a study using the Bayesian approach in stochastic volatility models for modeling financial time series, using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods (HMC). We propose the use of other distributions for the errors in the…
Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior…
This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic volatility (SV) modeling by utilizing nonparametric techniques that enhance our ability to capture the volatility of financial time series data, with a particular emphasis on the…
Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and…
This paper proposes a probabilistic Bayesian formulation for system identification (ID) and estimation of nonseparable Hamiltonian systems using stochastic dynamic models. Nonseparable Hamiltonian systems arise in models from diverse…
This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this…
We discuss nonparametric estimation of the trend coefficient in models governed by a stochastic differential equation driven by a multiplicative stochastic volatility.
The local volatility model is a widely used for pricing and hedging financial derivatives. While its main appeal is its capability of reproducing any given surface of observed option prices---it provides a perfect fit---the essential…
This article introduces a nonparametric approach to multivariate time-varying power spectrum analysis. The procedure adaptively partitions a time series into an unknown number of approximately stationary segments, where some spectral…
In this paper we consider Bayesian estimation for the parameters of inverse Gaussian distribution. Our emphasis is on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. We provide complete implementation of the Gibbs sampler algorithm. Assuming an…
Dynamical system state estimation and parameter calibration problems are ubiquitous across science and engineering. Bayesian approaches to the problem are the gold standard as they allow for the quantification of uncertainties and enable…
We consider discrete nonparametric priors which induce Gibbs-type exchangeable random partitions and investigate their posterior behavior in detail. In particular, we deduce conditional distributions and the corresponding Bayesian…
System identification is of special interest in science and engineering. This article is concerned with a system identification problem arising in stochastic dynamic systems, where the aim is to estimate the parameters of a system along…