Related papers: Nonparametric Bayesian volatility estimation
Spectral estimation (SE) aims to identify how the energy of a signal (e.g., a time series) is distributed across different frequencies. This can become particularly challenging when only partial and noisy observations of the signal are…
In multivariate time series, the estimation of the covariance matrix of the observation innovations plays an important role in forecasting as it enables the computation of the standardized forecast error vectors as well as it enables the…
Volatility estimation based on high-frequency data is key to accurately measure and control the risk of financial assets. A L\'{e}vy process with infinite jump activity and microstructure noise is considered one of the simplest, yet…
Conditional heteroscedastic (CH) models are routinely used to analyze financial datasets. The classical models such as ARCH-GARCH with time-invariant coefficients are often inadequate to describe frequent changes over time due to market…
In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…
Traditional partial differential equations with constant coefficients often struggle to capture abrupt changes in real-world phenomena, leading to the development of variable coefficient PDEs and Markovian switching models. Recently,…
We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for bi-variate data observed in time but with observation times which occur non-synchronously. In particular, this occurs in a wide variety of applications in finance, such as high-frequency…
For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we…
The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is applied for the Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model. We use the HMC algorithm for the Markov chain Monte Carlo updates of volatility variables of the SV model. First we…
Bayesian approach, as a useful tool for quantifying uncertainties, has been widely used for solving inverse problems of partial differential equations (PDEs). One of the key difficulties for employing Bayesian approach for the issue is how…
An approach for the description of stochastic systems is derived. Some of the variables in the system are studied forward in time, others backward in time. The approach is based on a perturbation expansion in the strength of the coupling…
Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is…
Stochastic volatility modelling of financial processes has become increasingly popular. The proposed models usually contain a stationary volatility process. We will motivate and review several nonparametric methods for estimation of the…
We propose a hybrid estimation procedure to estimate global fixed parameters and subject-specific random effects in a mixed fractional Black-Scholes model based on discrete-time observations. Specifically, we consider $N$ independent…
We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…
Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…
Distributed inference/estimation in Bayesian framework in the context of sensor networks has recently received much attention due to its broad applicability. The variational Bayesian (VB) algorithm is a technique for approximating…
This paper develops a class of Bayesian non- and semiparametric methods for estimating regression curves and surfaces. The main idea is to model the regression as locally linear, and then place suitable local priors on the local parameters.…
For modeling multivariate financial time series we propose a single factor copula model together with stochastic volatility margins. This model generalizes single factor models relying on the multivariate normal distribution and allows for…
There has been an intense development on the estimation of a sparse regression coefficient vector in statistics, machine learning and related fields. In this paper, we focus on the Bayesian approach to this problem, where sparsity is…