Related papers: Test Martingales for bounded random variables
Given the univariate marginals of a real-valued, continuous-time martingale, (respectively, a family of measures parameterised by $t \in [0,T]$ which is increasing in convex order, or a double continuum of call prices) we construct a family…
The usual way of testing probability forecasts in game-theoretic probability is via construction of test martingales. The standard assumption is that all forecasts are output by the same forecaster. In this paper I will discuss possible…
We develop a general framework for extracting highly uniform bounds on local stability for stochastic processes in terms of information on fluctuations or crossings. This includes a large class of martingales: As a corollary of our main…
We construct a class of nonnegative martingale processes that oscillate indefinitely with high probability. For these processes, we state a uniform rate of the number of oscillations and show that this rate is asymptotically close to the…
Experimentation involves risk. The investigator expends time and money in the pursuit of data that supports a hypothesis. In the end, the investigator may find that all of these costs were for naught and the data fail to reject the null.…
We propose procedures for testing whether stock price processes are martingales based on limit order type betting strategies. We first show that the null hypothesis of martingale property of a stock price process can be tested based on the…
Given a c\`adl\`ag process $X$ on a filtered measurable space, we construct a version of its semimartingale characteristics which is measurable with respect to the underlying probability law. More precisely, let $\mathfrak{P}_{sem}$ be the…
In this paper we consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for coefficients of martingale regression models (in particular, time series models) after variable selection. Although constructing confidence intervals are common…
In 1976, Lai constructed a nontrivial confidence sequence for the mean $\mu$ of a Gaussian distribution with unknown variance $\sigma^2$. Curiously, he employed both an improper (right Haar) mixture over $\sigma$ and an improper (flat)…
We present for the first time a supermartingale certificate for $\omega$-regular specifications. We leverage the Robbins & Siegmund convergence theorem to characterize supermartingale certificates for the almost-sure acceptance of Streett…
Financial statement auditing is conducted under a risk-based evidence approach to obtain reasonable assurance. In practice, auditors often perform additional sampling or related procedures when an initial sample does not provide a…
We provide verification theorems (at different levels of generality) for infinite horizon stochastic control problems in continuous time for semimartingales. The control framework is given as an abstract "martingale formulation", which…
Martingales constitute a basic tool in stochastic analysis; this paper considers their application to counting processes. We use this tool to revisit a renewal theorem and its extensions for various counting processes. We first consider a…
The main object of investigation in this paper is a very general regression model in optional setting - when an observed process is an optional semimartingale depending on an unknown parameter. It is well-known that statistical data may…
This paper explores hypothesis testing for the parametric forms of the mean and variance functions in regression models under diverging-dimension settings. To mitigate the curse of dimensionality, we introduce weighted residual empirical…
The classic model of computable randomness considers martingales that take real or rational values. Recent work by Bienvenu et al. (2012) and Teutsch (2014) shows that fundamental features of the classic model change when the martingales…
Invariance times are stopping times $\tau$ such that local martingales with respect to some reduced filtration and an equivalently changed probability measure, stopped before $\tau$ , are local martingales with respect to the original model…
Safe anytime-valid inference (SAVI) provides measures of statistical evidence and certainty -- e-processes for testing and confidence sequences for estimation -- that remain valid at all stopping times, accommodating continuous monitoring…
We introduce a method for proving almost sure termination in the context of lambda calculus with continuous random sampling and explicit recursion, based on ranking supermartingales. This result is extended in three ways. Antitone ranking…
We design sequential tests for a large class of nonparametric null hypotheses based on elicitable and identifiable functionals. Such functionals are defined in terms of scoring functions and identification functions, which are ideal…