Related papers: Test Martingales for bounded random variables
A well known result in stochastic analysis reads as follows: for an $\mathbb{R}$-valued super-martingale $X = (X_t)_{0\leq t \leq T}$ such that the terminal value $X_T$ is non-negative, we have that the entire process $X$ is non-negative.…
Null Hypothesis Statistical Testing is a dominant framework for conducting statistical analysis across the sciences. There remains considerable debate as to whether, and under what circumstances, evidence can be said to be confirmatory of a…
Given a stock price process, we analyse the potential of arbitrage by insiders in a context of short-selling prohibitions. We introduce the notion of minimal supermartingale measure, and we analyse its properties in connection to the…
Monte Carlo simulations are based on the manipulation of random numbers to evaluate probable outcomes, with applicability in a variety of different fields. By assigning probabilities, which can be determined a priori, to various events, it…
We construct a financial "Turing test" to determine whether human subjects can differentiate between actual vs. randomized financial returns. The experiment consists of an online video-game (http://arora.ccs.neu.edu) where players are…
High-dimensional vector autoregression with measurement error is frequently encountered in a large variety of scientific and business applications. In this article, we study statistical inference of the transition matrix under this model.…
This paper develops robust test procedures for testing the intercept of a simple regression model when it is \textit{apriori} suspected that the slope has a specified value. Defining unrestricted test (UT), restricted test (RT) and pre-test…
The equivalence between multiportfolio time consistency of a dynamic multivariate risk measure and a supermartingale property is proven. Furthermore, the dual variables under which this set-valued supermartingale is a martingale are…
System modeling is a classical approach to ensure their reliability since it is suitable both for a formal verification and for software testing techniques. In the context of model-based testing an approach combining random testing and…
We present a set of high-probability inequalities that control the concentration of weighted averages of multiple (possibly uncountably many) simultaneously evolving and interdependent martingales. Our results extend the PAC-Bayesian…
Let $E$ be a space of observables in a sequence of trials $\xi_n$ and define $m_n$ to be the empirical distributions of the outcomes. We discuss the almost sure convergence of the sequence $m_n$ in terms of the $\psi$-weak topology of…
We provide a composite version of Ville's theorem that an event has zero measure if and only if there exists a nonnegative martingale which explodes to infinity when that event occurs. This is a classic result connecting measure-theoretic…
We derive a nonparametric test for constant beta over a fixed time interval from high-frequency observations of a bivariate \Ito semimartingale. Beta is defined as the ratio of the spot continuous covariation between an asset and a risk…
In the report the approach to estimation of quality of planned experiments is considered. This approach is based on the analysis of uncertainty, which will take place under the future hypotheses testing about the existence of a new…
We discuss martingales, detrending data, and the efficient market hypothesis for stochastic processes x(t) with arbitrary diffusion coefficients D(x,t). Beginning with x-independent drift coefficients R(t) we show that Martingale stochastic…
We consider a statistical test whose p-value can only be approximated using Monte Carlo simulations. We are interested in deciding whether the p-value for an observed data set lies above or below a given threshold such as 5%. We want to…
Though the ability of human beings to deal with probabilities has been put into question, the assessment of rarity is a crucial competence underlying much of human decision-making and is pervasive in spontaneous narrative behaviour. This…
We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference with a supervised version of the Gaussian process latent variable model. The framework overcomes the high correlations between latent variables and hyperparameters by using an unbiased pseudo…
We prove that, for locally bounded processes, absence of arbitrage opportunities of the first kind is equivalent to the existence of a dominating local martingale measure. This is related to and motivated by results from the theory of…
We deal with various alternative decompositions of F-martingales with respect to the filtration G which represents the enlargement of a filtration F by a progressive flow of observations of a random time that either belongs to the class of…