Related papers: Quantifying Health Shocks Over the Life Cycle
This work focuses on time-inhomogeneous Markov chains with two time scales. Our motivations stem from applications in reliability and dependability, queueing networks, financial engineering and manufacturing systems, where two-time-scale…
In a $\delta-$shock model, a system subject to randomly occurring shocks, the system fails when the time between two successive shocks lies below a threshold $\delta$. In this note, we study the generalization of this model where such…
Background: Identifying and characterising the longitudinal patterns of multimorbidity associated with stroke is needed to better understand patients' needs and inform new models of care. Methods: We used an unsupervised patient-oriented…
The unprecedented extension of the human lifespan necessitates a parallel evolution in how we quantify the quality of aging and its socioeconomic impact. Traditional metrics focusing on Healthspan (years free of disease) overlook the…
In this work we develop a new method of diagnosing the nervous system diseases and a new approach in studying human gait dynamics with the help of the theory of discrete non-Markov random processes. The stratification of the phase clouds…
In a recent paper, Shah [arXiv:2502.03073] derived an explicit expression for the distribution of occupancy times for a two-state Markov chain, using a method based on enumerating sample paths. We consider here the more general problem of…
We study how nonlinear, state-dependent health dynamics shape economic behavior, inequality, and the evaluation of disability insurance at older ages. Using English panel data, we construct a continuous health index and estimate its…
We consider a random walk with catastrophes which was introduced to model population biology. It is known that this Markov chain gets eventually absorbed at $0$ for all parameter values. Recently, it has been shown that this chain exhibits…
In China, stroke is the first leading cause of death in recent years. It is a major cause of long-term physical and cognitive impairment, which bring great pressure on the National Public Health System. Evaluation of the risk of getting…
Falls during walking are a major health issue in the elderly population. Older individuals are usually more cautious, work more slowly, take shorter steps, and exhibit increased step-to-step variability. They often have impaired dynamic…
In this paper we explore the life expectancy limits by based on the stochastic modeling of mortality and applying the first exit or hitting time theory of a stochastic process. The main assumption is that the health state or the "vitality",…
This paper deals with the long-term behaviour and incidence of a vaccine-preventable contact disease, under the assumption that both vaccine protection and immunity after recovery are not lifelong. The mathematical model is developed in a…
We use real-world contact sequences, time-ordered lists of contacts from one person to another, to study how fast information or disease can spread across network of contacts. Specifically we measure the reachability time -- the average…
Understanding how people form and revise their perception of risk is central to designing efficient risk communication methods, eliciting risk awareness, and avoiding unnecessary anxiety among the public. However, public responses to…
Stroke is widely considered as the second most common cause of mortality. The adverse consequences of stroke have led to global interest and work for improving the management and diagnosis of stroke. Various techniques for data mining have…
The spread of infectious diseases near the epidemic threshold is investigated. Scaling laws for the size and the duration of outbreaks originating from a single infected individual in a large susceptible population are obtained. The maximal…
We consider hundreds of thousands of individual economic transactions to ask: how predictable are consumers in their merchant visitation patterns? Our results suggest that, in the long-run, much of our seemingly elective activity is…
A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…
This paper quantifies the age-stratified global burden of four mental disorders in 27 regions from 1990 to 2021 using GBD 2021. To put it in detail, it links the age-standardized years of disability adjustment with 18 world development…
We propose a series of methods and models in order to explore the Global Burden of Disease Study and the provided healthy life expectancy HALE estimates from the World Health Organization WHO based on the mortality mx of a population…