Related papers: Quantifying Health Shocks Over the Life Cycle
An approach to analyse the properties of a particle system is to compare it with different processes to understand when one of them is larger than other ones. The main technique for that is coupling, which may not be easy to construct. We…
In a communication setting where multiple sources share a single channel to provide status updates to a remote monitor, source transmissions need to be scheduled appropriately to maintain timely communication between each of the sources and…
We consider a collection of statistically identical two-state continuous time Markov chains (channels). A controller continuously selects a channel with the view of maximizing infinite horizon average reward. A switching cost is paid upon…
Catastrophe Markov chain population models have received a lot of attention in the recent past. We herewith consider two special cases of such models involving total disasters, both in discrete and in continuous-time. Depending on the…
Early diagnosis is important for type 2 diabetes (T2D) to improve patient prognosis, prevent complications and reduce long-term treatment costs. We present a novel risk profiling approach based exclusively on health expenditure data that is…
Each stage of the human life course is characterized by a distinctive pattern of social relations. We study how the intensity and importance of the closest social contacts vary across the life course, using a large database of mobile…
We consider a network consisting of $n$ components (links or nodes) and assume that the network has two states, up and down. We further suppose that the network is subject to shocks that appear according to a counting process and that each…
We present a local spread model of disease transmission on a regular network and compare different control options ranging from treating the whole population to local control in a well-defined neighborhood of an infectious individual.…
How self-organized networks develop, mature and degenerate is a key question for sociotechnical, cyberphysical and biological systems with potential applications from tackling violent extremism through to neurological diseases. So far, it…
The study of systemic risk is often presented through the analysis of several measures referring to quantities used by practitioners and policy makers. Almost invariably, those measures evaluate the size of the impact that exogenous events…
The initial theoretical connections between Leontief input-output models and Markov chains were established back in 1950s. However, considering the wide variety of mathematical properties of Markov chains, there has not been a full…
Atherosclerosis is one of the principle pathologies of cardiovascular disease with blood cholesterol a significant risk factor. The World Health Organisation estimates that approximately 2.5 million deaths occur annually due to the risk…
We consider a communication system in which status updates arrive at a source node, and should be transmitted through a network to the intended destination node. The status updates are samples of a random process under observation,…
In a Markov chain started at a state $x$, the hitting time $\tau(y)$ is the first time that the chain reaches another state $y$. We study the probability $\mathbf{P}_x(\tau(y) = t)$ that the first visit to $y$ occurs precisely at a given…
Models for control of epidemics on local, global and small-world networks are considered, with only partial information accessible about the status of individuals and their connections. The main goal of an effective control measure is to…
Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. We…
Can uncertainty about credit availability trigger a slowdown in real activity? This question is answered by using a novel method to identify shocks to uncertainty in access to credit. Time-variation in uncertainty about credit availability…
In this paper we consider pricing of insurance contracts for breast cancer risk based on three multiple state models. Using population data in England and data from the medical literature, we calibrate a collection of semi-Markov and Markov…
In this paper, we derive explicit closed-form solutions for the value function and the associated optimal stopping boundaries in an optimal annuitization problem under a mortality shock. We consider an individual whose retirement wealth is…
Cerebrovascular accident (CVA) or stroke is the rapid loss of brain function due to disturbance in the blood supply to the brain. Statistically, stroke is the second leading cause of death. This has motivated us to suggest a two-tier system…