Related papers: Coupling between death spikes and birth troughs. P…

Experimental observations of time delay induced amplitude death in a pair of coupled nonlinear electronic circuits that are individually capable of exhibiting limit cycle oscillations are described. In particular, the existence of multiply…

This paper shows that the mid-20th century was characterised by a considerable reduction in breastfeeding rates, reducing from over 80% in the late 1930s to just over 40% only three decades later. We investigate how maternal breastfeeding…

Birth-death processes form a natural class where ideas and results on large deviations can be tested. In this paper, we derive a large deviation principle under the assumption that the rate of a jump down (death) is growing asymptotically…

We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are…

A characteristic change of seismicity has been recently uncovered when the precursory Seismic Electric Signals activities initiate before an earthquake occurrence. In particular, the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit…

This study proposes a nonhomogeneous birth--death model which captures the dynamics of a directly transmitted infectious disease. Our model accounts for an important aspect of observed epidemic data in which only symptomatic infecteds are…

The study considers the model of an abstract organism, called Arbitrary Oscillator (ArbO), which is capable of making decisions at each timed step. These decisions are 'critical' since, randomly, their outcome can be 'fatal' for ArbO, thus…

Various works have already showed that common shocks and cross-country financial linkages caused the banking systems of several countries to be highly interconnected with the result that during bad times, banking crises may arise…

We study equilibrium distancing during epidemics. Distancing reduces the individual's probability of getting infected but comes at a cost. It creates a single-peaked epidemic, flattens the curve and decreases the size of the epidemic. We…

I study a recently proposed statistical model of earthquake dynamics that incorporates aging as a fundamental ingredient. The model is known to generate earthquake sequences that quantitatively reproduce the spatial and temporal clustering…

We consider a random process on recursive trees, with three types of events. Vertices give birth at a constant rate (growth), each edge may be removed independently (fragmentation of the tree) and clusters (or trees) are frozen with a rate…

We follow up on a companion work that considered growth rates of populations growing at different sites, with different randomly varying growth rates at each site, in the limit as migration between sites goes to 0. We extend this work here…

We study the statistical properties of recurrence times in the self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson process, the simplest extension of the Poisson process that takes into account how the past events influence the occurrence of future…

Birth-death processes take place ubiquitously throughout the universe. In general, birth and death rates depend on the system size (corresponding to the number of products or customers undergoing the birth-death process) and thus vary every…

The thresholding of time series of activity or intensity is frequently used to define and differentiate events. This is either implicit, for example due to resolution limits, or explicit, in order to filter certain small scale physics from…

We show analytically that the answer to the question, "The longer it has been since the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next ?" depends crucially on the statistics of the fluctuations in the interval times between…

By analyzing the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) seismic catalog for different tectonic settings, we have found that the probability distributions of time intervals between successive earthquakes --interoccurrence times-- can be described…

In this article we study the long time behaviour of measure-valued birth and death processes in continuous time, where the dynamics between jumps are one-dimensional Markov processes including diffusion and jumps. We consider the three…

Populations are often subject to catastrophes that cause mass removal of individuals. Many stochastic growth models have been considered to explain such dynamics. Among the results reported, it has been considered whether dispersion…

Monitoring stress recovery and accumulation associated with megaquakes helps to assess their recurrence. Previous studies proposed a high likelihood of imminent recurrence for the 2011 Tohoku and the 17th-century Hokkaido megaquakes…