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Epidemics exhibit interconnected processes that operate at multiple time and organizational scales, a hallmark of complex adaptive systems. Modern epidemiological modeling frameworks incorporate feedback between individual-level behavioral…
Conventional wisdom holds that influenza A and B are such genetically dissimilar viruses that infection with one cannot confer cross-immunity to the other. However, our examination of the records of the past 25 influenza seasons in the U.S.…
This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult…
A feature of human creativity is the ability to take a subset of existing items (e.g. objects, ideas, or techniques) and combine them in various ways to give rise to new items, which, in turn, fuel further growth. Occasionally, some of…
We investigate heterogeneous coupling delays in complex networks of excitable elements described by the FitzHugh-Nagumo model. The effects of discrete as well as of uni- and bimodal continuous distributions are studied with a focus on…
The neutron population in a prototype model of nuclear reactor can be described in terms of a collection of particles confined in a box and undergoing three key random mechanisms: diffusion, reproduction due to fissions, and death due to…
Bursting and non-renewal processes are common phenomena in birth-death process, yet no theory can quantitatively describe a non-renewal birth process with bursting. Here, we present a theoretical model that yields the product number…
We consider a continuous time Markov process on $\mathbb{N}_0$ which can be interpreted as generalized alternating birth-death process in a non-autonomous random environment. Depending on the status of the environment the process either…
In the standard Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) models, the peak of infected individuals coincides with the in ection point of removed individuals. Nevertheless, a survey based on the data…
Recently, a first step was made by the authors towards a systematic investigation of the effect of reaction-step-size noise - uncertainty in the step size of the reaction - on the dynamics of stochastic populations. This was done by…
This paper develops a granular regime-switching framework to model mortality deviations from seasonal baseline trends driven by temperature and epidemic shocks. The framework features three states: (1) a baseline state that captures…
Suitable assumptions for the Gompertz mortality law take into account the break in the time development observed recently by Wilmoth et al. They show how a drastic reduction in the birth rate and improved living conditions lead to a drastic…
We propose a stochastic model for evolution. Births and deaths of species occur with constant probabilities. Each new species is associated with a fitness sampled from the uniform distribution on [0,1]. Every time there is a death event…
Adverse conditions in early life can have consequential impacts on individuals' health in older age. In one of the first papers on this topic, Barker and Osmond 1986 show a strong positive relationship between infant mortality rates in the…
We clarify the distinction between direct and indirect effects of disasters such as Hurricane Mar\'ia and use data from the Puerto Rico Vital Statistics System to estimate monthly excess deaths in the immediate aftermath of the hurricane…
Pandemics, like the 1918 Spanish Influenza and COVID-19, spread through regions of the World in subsequent waves. There is, however, no consensus on the origin of this pattern, which may originate from human behaviour rather than from the…
Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…
The existing life table method needs to calculate the age-specific mortality first, not only has too many and complicated calculation steps, but also introduces the multiple approximation to bring error. This paper redefines the probability…
The spread of infectious disease is strongly influenced by social dynamics. In addition to infection risk, individuals vaccination decisions depend on prevailing social behavior: high infection levels and widespread vaccination can increase…
Epidemic modelling on complex networks has been studied intensively all the time. The majority of relative research assumes that the time scale of the underlying network evolution is much larger compared to the propagation dynamics on it,…