Related papers: Coupling between death spikes and birth troughs. P…

We propose two simple probability models to compute the probability of an influenza pandemic. Under a random walk model the probability that all pandemics between times 0 and 300 occur by time 150 is 1/2. Under a Poisson model with mean…

In a Markov chain population model subject to catastrophes, random immigration events (birth), promoting growth, are in balance with the effect of binomial catastrophes that cause recurrent mass removal (death). Using a generating function…

The asymmetry of coupling between complex systems can be studied by conditional probabilities of recurrence, which can be estimated by joint recurrence plots. This approach is applied for the first time on experimental data: time series of…

We develop a likelihood-based inference for finite-state birth-death processes with composite birth rates, in which multiple distinct mechanisms contribute additively to the total birth intensity. Our main motivating example is an SIS…

On 11 June the World Health Organization officially raised the phase of pandemic alert (with regard to the new H1N1 influenza strain) to level 6. We use a global structured metapopulation model integrating mobility and transportation data…

The dynamics of a population exhibiting exponential growth can be modelled as a birth-death process, which naturally captures the stochastic variation in population size over time. In this article, we consider a supercritical birth-death…

Studying event time series is a powerful approach for analyzing the dynamics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of science. In this paper, we describe the method of event coincidence analysis to provide a framework for quantifying…

In temperate climates, mortality is seasonal with a winter-dominant pattern, due in part to pneumonia and influenza. Cardiac causes, which are the leading cause of death in the United States, are also winter-seasonal although it is not…

The spatial structure of an evolving population affects which mutations become fixed. Some structures amplify selection, increasing the likelihood that beneficial mutations become fixed while deleterious mutations do not. Other structures…

We investigate how a catastrophic event (modeled as a temporary fall of the reproduction rate) increases the extinction probability of an isolated self-regulated stochastic population. Using a variant of the Verhulst logistic model as an…

In this study, we explore the dynamic interplay between the timing of vaccination campaigns and the trajectory of disease spread in a population. Through comprehensive data analysis and modeling, we have uncovered a counter-intuitive…

Extreme mutation rates in microbes and cancer cells can result in error-induced extinction (EEX), where every descendant cell eventually acquires a lethal mutation. In this work, we investigate critical birth-death processes with $n$…

Finding optimal policies to reduce the morbidity and mortality of the ongoing pandemic is a top public health priority. Using a compartmental model with age structure and vaccination status, we examined the effect of age specific scheduling…

Confirmed cases during the early stage of the 2009 H1N1 pdm in various countries showed an age shift between importations and local transmission cases, with adults mainly responsible for seeding unaffected regions and children most…

We propose that large stock market crashes are analogous to critical points studied in statistical physics with log-periodic correction to scaling. We extend our previous renormalization group model of stock market prices prior to and after…

This study uses a catastrophic earthquake in 1923 to analyse the long-term effects of a natural disaster on children's health. I find that fetal exposure to Japan's Great Kanto Earthquake had stunting effects on girls in the devastated…

An important challenge in several disciplines is to understand how sudden changes can propagate among coupled systems. Examples include the synchronization of business cycles, population collapse in patchy ecosystems, markets shifting to a…

Quantities with right-skewed distributions are ubiquitous in complex social systems, including political conflict, economics and social networks, and these systems sometimes produce extremely large events. For instance, the 9/11 terrorist…

We consider an excitatory population of subthreshold Izhikevich neurons which exhibit noise-induced firings. By varying the coupling strength $J$, we investigate population synchronization between the noise-induced firings which may be used…

Occurrence of strong or mass synchronization of a large number of neuronal populations in the brain characterizes its pathological states. In order to establish an understanding of the mechanism underlying such pathological synchronization…