Related papers: Persistence of one-dimensional AR(1)-sequences

In this paper, we address the existence of Fredholm backstepping transformations for self-adjoint and skew-adjoint operators $A$. Under suitable assumptions on the operator $A$ and the possibly unbounded control operator $B$, we prove the…

Taking one-dimensional random transverse Ising model (RTIM) with the double-Gaussian disorder for example, we investigated the spin autocorrelation function (SAF) and associated spectral density at high temperature by the recursion method.…

This paper studies properties of functions having monotone tails. We extend Theorem 1 of Dhaene et al. (2002a) and show how the tail quantiles of a random variable transformed with a monotone tail function can be expressed as the…

Let Z be a strictly a-stable real Levy process (a>1) and X be a fluctuating b-homogeneous additive functional of Z. We investigate the asymptotics of the first passage-time of X above 1, and give a general upper bound. When Z has no…

We prove tail estimates for variables $\sum_i f(X_i)$, where $(X_i)_i$ is the trajectory of a random walk on an undirected graph (or, equivalently, a reversible Markov chain). The estimates are in terms of the maximum of the function $f$,…

This paper considers one-dimensional mixed causal/noncausal autoregressive (MAR) processes with heavy tail, usually introduced to model trajectories with patterns including asymmetric peaks and throughs, speculative bubbles, flash crashes,…

We study the probability that an AR(1) Markov chain $X_{n+1}=aX_n+\xi_{n+1}$, where $a\in(0,1)$ is a constant, stays non-negative for a long time. We find the exact asymptotics of this probability and the weak limit of $X_n$ conditioned to…

We look at joint regular variation properties of MA($\infty$) processes of the form $\mathbf{X} = (X_k, k \in \mathbb{Z})$ where $X_k = \sum_{j=0}^{\infty} \psi_j Z_{k-j}$ and the sequence of random variables $(Z_i, i \in \mathbb{Z})$ are…

This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…

We study the problem of modelling high-dimensional, heavy-tailed time series data via a factor-adjusted vector autoregressive (VAR) model, which simultaneously accounts for pervasive co-movements of the variables by a handful of factors, as…

This work investigates the tail behavior of solutions to the affine stochastic fixed-point equation of the form $X\stackrel{d}{=}AX+B$, where $X$ and $(A,B)$ are independent. Focusing on the light-tail regime, following [Burdzy et al.…

We study the behavior of a real-valued and unobservable process (Y_t) under an extreme event of a related process (X_t) that is observable. Our analysis is motivated by the well-known GARCH model which represents two such sequences, i.e.…

In real-world scenarios, where knowledge distributions exhibit long-tail. Humans manage to master knowledge uniformly across imbalanced distributions, a feat attributed to their diligent practices of reviewing, summarizing, and correcting…

The long-time behavior of the velocity autocorrelation function in a classical two-dimensional electric conduction system is studied by the molecular dynamics simulation. In equilibrium, the effect of coexistence of many-body interactions…

Given a sequence of i.i.d. random functions $\Psi_{n}:\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}$, $n\in\mathbb{N}$, we consider the iterated function system and Markov chain which is recursively defined by $X_{0}^{x}:=x$ and…

Recovery error bounds of tail-minimization and the rate of convergence of an efficient proximal alternating algorithm for sparse signal recovery are considered in this article. Tail-minimization focuses on minimizing the energy in the…

We extend classical results about the convergence of nearly unstable AR(p) processes to the infinite order case. To do so, we proceed as in recent works about Hawkes processes by using limit theorems for some well chosen geometric sums. We…

To consider a high-dimensional random process, we propose a notion about stochastic tensor-valued random process (TRP). In this work, we first attempt to apply a generic chaining method to derive tail bounds for all p-th moments of the…

Alder and Wainwright discovered the slow power decay $\sim t^{-d/2}$ ($d$:dimension) of the velocity autocorrelation function in moderately dense hard sphere fluids using the event-driven molecular dynamics simulations. In the…

We propose a variational tail bound for norms of random vectors under moment assumptions on their one-dimensional marginals. A simplified version of the bound that parametrizes the ``aggregating distribution'' using a certain pushforward of…