Related papers: Persistence of one-dimensional AR(1)-sequences
In a general class of one dimensional random differential equation the convergence of the distribution function of the solution to stationary state distribution is studied. In particular it is proved the boundedness respectively the…
Renewal theorems are developed for point processes with interarrival times $W_n=\xi(X_{n+1}X_n\cdots)$, where $(X_n)_{n\in\mathbb Z}$ is a stochastic process with finite state space $\Sigma$ and $\xi\colon\Sigma_A\to\mathbb R$ is a H\"older…
Noncausal, or anticipative, heavy-tailed processes generate trajectories featuring locally explosive episodes akin to speculative bubbles in financial time series data. For $(X_t)$ a two-sided infinite $\alpha$-stable moving average (MA),…
We investigate high-dimensional sparse regression when both the noise and the design matrix exhibit heavy-tailed behavior. Standard algorithms typically fail in this regime, as heavy-tailed covariates distort the empirical risk geometry. We…
We consider linear, time-dependent and skew-adjoint perturbations of periodic transport equations on the one-dimensional torus. We describe the long-time behavior of solutions for all non-degenerate perturbations in resonant regime, proving…
We develop an efficient simulation algorithm for computing the tail probabilities of the infinite series $S = \sum_{n \geq 1} a_n X_n$ when random variables $X_n$ are heavy-tailed. As $S$ is the sum of infinitely many random variables, any…
Random acceleration is a fundamental stochastic process encountered in many applications. In the one-dimensional version of the process a particle is randomly accelerated according to the Langevin equation $\ddot{x}(t) = \sqrt{2D} \xi(t)$,…
The extreme values theory presents specific tools for modeling and predicting extreme phenomena. In particular, risk assessment is often analyzed through measures for tail dependence and high values clustering. Despite technological…
A fixed-design residual bootstrap method is proposed for the two-step estimator of Francq and Zako\"ian (2015) associated with the conditional Value-at-Risk. The bootstrap's consistency is proven for a general class of volatility models and…
Runtime analysis, as a branch of the theory of AI, studies how the number of iterations algorithms take before finding a solution (its runtime) depends on the design of the algorithm and the problem structure. Drift analysis is a…
Consider a Lamperti-Kiu Markov additive process $(J_t,\xi_t:t\geq0)$ on $\{+,-\}\times\mathbb{R}\cup\infty$ where $J$ is the modulating Markov chain component. First, we study the finiteness of the exponential functional and then consider…
This paper describes limiting behaviour of tail empirical process associated with long memory stochastic volatility models. We show that such process has dichotomous behaviour, according to an interplay between a Hurst parameter and a tail…
Rate of convergence is studied for a diffusion process on the half line with a non-sticky reflection to a heavy-tailed 1D invariant distribution which density on the half line has a polynomial decay at infinity. Starting from a standard…
Consider a random walk with a drift to the right on $\{0,\ldots,k\}$ where $k$ is random and geometrically distributed. We show that the tail $P[T>t]$ of the length $T$ of an excursion from $0$ decreases up to constants like $t^{-\varrho}$…
Last passage times arise in a number of areas of applied probability, including risk theory and degradation models. Such times are obviously not stopping times since they depend on the whole path of the underlying process. We consider the…
Non-Markovian dynamics are commonly found in real-world environments due to long-range dependencies, partial observability, and memory effects. The Bellman equation that is the central pillar of Reinforcement learning (RL) becomes only…
We consider an autonomous system in R^n having a limit cycle x_0 of period T>0 which is nondegenerate in a suitable sense. We then consider the perturbed system obtained by adding to the autonomous system a T-periodic, not necessarily…
For the basic case of $L_2$ optimal transport between two probability measures on a Euclidean space, the regularity of the coupling measure and the transport map in the tail regions of these measures is studied. For this purpose, Robert…
We determine sufficient conditions under which certain recursively defined functions are well defined for all real inputs. Given a function $f:\mathbb R\to\mathbb R$, call a decreasing sequence $x_1>x_2>x_3>\cdots$ "$f$-bad" if…
The well-known "Janson's inequality" gives Poisson-like upper bounds for the lower tail probability \Pr(X \le (1-\eps)\E X) when X is the sum of dependent indicator random variables of a special form. We show that, for large deviations,…