Related papers: Persistence of one-dimensional AR(1)-sequences

We establish a statistical learning theoretical framework aimed at extrapolation, or out-of-domain generalization, on the unobserved tails of covariates in continuous regression problems. Our strategy involves performing statistical…

We study functional convergence of sums of moving averages with random coefficients and heavy-tailed innovations. Under some standard moment conditions and the assumption that all partial sums of the series of coefficients are a.s. bounded…

This note discusses two problems related to the Fredrickson-Andersen one spin facilitated model in stationarity. The first, considered in 2008 in a paper of Cancrini, Martinelli, Roberto and Toninelli, is the spectral gap of the model's…

We consider SDEs of the form $dX_t = |f(X_t)|/t^{\gamma} dt+1/t^{\gamma} dB_t$, where $f(x)$ behaves comparably to $|x|^k$ in a neighborhood of the origin, for $k\in [1,\infty)$. We show that there exists a threshold value…

In this paper, we introduce an algebraic method to construct stable and consistent univariate autoregressive (AR) models of low order for filtering and predicting nonlinear turbulent signals with memory depth. By stable, we refer to the…

Using an intrinsic approach, we study some properties of random fields which appear as tail fields of regularly varying stationary random fields. The index set is allowed to be a general locally compact Hausdorff Abelian group $\mathbb{G}$.…

In this paper we first provide several conditional limit theorems for L\'evy processes with negative drift and regularly varying tail. Then we apply them to study the asymptotic behavior of expectations of some exponential functionals of…

In this paper we provide a new criterion for the comparison of claims, when we have conditional claims arising in stop loss contracts or contracts with franchise deductible. These stochastic comparisons are made on the basis of the Tail…

Let $X_{t}$ denote a stationary first-order autoregressive process. Consider five contiguous observations (in time $t$) of the series (e.g., $X_{1}, ..., X_{5}$). Let $M$ denote the maximum of these. Let $\rho$ be the lag-one serial…

We obtain complementary recurrence and transience criteria for processes $X=(X_n)_{n \ge 0}$ with values in $\mathbb R^d_+$ fulfilling a non-linear equation $X_{n+1}=MX_n+g(X_n)+ \xi_{n+1}$. Here $M$ denotes a primitive matrix having…

This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of higher-order conditional tail moments, which quantify the contribution of individual losses in the event of systemic collapse. The study is conducted within a framework comprising two…

This paper focuses on recursive estimation of time varying autoregressive processes in a nonparametric setting. The stability of the model is revisited and uniform results are provided when the time-varying autoregressive parameters belong…

We introduce a simple but powerful technique to study processes driven by two or more reinforcement mechanisms in competition. We apply our method to two types of models: to non conservative zero range processes on finite graphs, and to…

We provide the exact large-time behavior of the tail distribution of the extinction time of a self-similar fragmentation process with a negative index of self-similarity, improving thus a previous result on the logarithmic asymptotic…

By using a probabilistic technique based on the exponential change of measure we find a precise tail asymptotic behavior of some perpetuities with distributions close to the Dickman distribution.

Given a recursive distributional equation (RDE) and a solution $\mu$ of it, we consider the tree indexed invariant process called the recursive tree process (RTP) with marginal $\mu$. We introduce a new type of bivariate uniqueness property…

Understanding the time-varying structure of complex temporal systems is one of the main challenges of modern time series analysis. In this paper, we show that every uniformly-positive-definite-in-covariance and sufficiently short-range…

For integers $n\geq r$, we treat the $r$th largest of a sample of size $n$ as an $\mathbb{R}^\infty$-valued stochastic process in $r$ which we denote $\mathbf{M}^{(r)}$. We show that the sequence regarded in this way satisfies the Markov…

Let $\{X_i(t),t\ge0\}, 1\le i\le n$ be independent copies of a random process $\{X(t), t\ge0\}$. For a given positive constant $u$, define the set of $r$th conjunctions $C_r(u):=\{t\in[0,1]: X_{r:n}(t)>u\}$ with $ X_{r:n}$ the $r$th largest…

We study the lower tail large deviation problem for subgraph counts in a random graph. Let $X_H$ denote the number of copies of $H$ in an Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$. We are interested in estimating the lower tail…