Related papers: Persistence of one-dimensional AR(1)-sequences

Large-scale autoregressive models pretrained on next-token prediction and finetuned with reinforcement learning (RL) have achieved unprecedented success on many problem domains. During RL, these models explore by generating new outputs, one…

Finite sample properties of random covariance-type matrices have been the subject of much research. In this paper we focus on the "lower tail" of such a matrix, and prove that it is subgaussian under a simple fourth moment assumption on the…

This article concerns the tail probabilities of a light-tailed Markov-modulated L\'evy process stopped at a state-dependent Poisson rate. The tails are shown to decay exponentially at rates given by the unique positive and negative roots of…

Random deflated risk models have been considered in recent literatures. In this paper, we investigate second-order tail behavior of the deflated risk X=RS under the assumptions of second-order regular variation on the survival functions of…

Employing the framework of regular variation, we propose two decompositions which help to summarize and describel high-dimensional tail dependence. Via transformation, we define a vector space on the positive orthant, yielding the notion of…

The late time response of vacuum black holes in General Relativity is notoriously governed by power law tails arising from the wave scattering off the curved spacetime geometry far from the black hole. While it is known that such tails are…

We discuss the radiation problem of total reflection for a time-harmonic generalized Maxwell system in a non-smooth exterior domain with non-smooth inhomogeneous, anisotropic coefficients converging near infinity with a certain rate towards…

We obtain first decay rates of probabilities of tails of multivariate polynomials built on independent random variables with heavy tails. Then we derive stable limit theorems for nonconventional sums of the form $\sum_{Nt\geq n\geq…

Consider an inhomogeneous Poisson process and let $D$ be the first of its epochs which is followed by a gap of size $\ell>0$. We establish a criterion for $D<\infty$ a.s., as well as for $D$ being long-tailed and short-tailed, and obtain…

We consider the long-time behaviour of spherically symmetric solutions in the Einstein-Skyrme model. Using nonlinear perturbation analysis we obtain the leading order estimation of the tail in the topologically trivial sector (B = 0) of the…

Let $Y=\sum_{k\ge 1} 1_{A_k}$ be an infinite sum of the indicators of independent events. We investigate a precise (as opposed to logarithmic) first-order asymptotic behavior of the tail probabilities $\mathbb{P}\{Y\ge n\}$ and the point…

We present a machine learning approach to the inversion of Fredholm integrals of the first kind. The approach provides a natural regularization in cases where the inverse of the Fredholm kernel is ill-conditioned. It also provides an…

Stochastic volatility processes with heavy-tailed innovations are a well-known model for financial time series. In these models, the extremes of the log returns are mainly driven by the extremes of the i.i.d. innovation sequence which leads…

We consider a stationary regularly varying time series which can be expressedas a function of a geometrically ergodic Markov chain. We obtain practical conditionsfor the weak convergence of the tail array sums and feasible estimators…

Let $\{X_t, t \geq 1\}$ be a sequence of identically distributed and pairwise asymptotically independent random variables with regularly varying tails and $\{ \Theta_t, t\geq1 \}$ be a sequence of positive random variables independent of…

Consider the linear nonhomogeneous fixed point equation R =_d sum_{i=1}^N C_i R_i + Q, where (Q,N,C_1,...,C_N) is a random vector with N in{0,1,2,3,...}U{infty}, {C_i}_{i=1}^N >= 0, P(|Q|>0) > 0, and {R_i}_{i=1}^N is a sequence of i.i.d.…

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the tail of the distribution of the first passage time of a L\'evy process over a one-sided moving boundary. Our main result states that if the boundary behaves as $t^{\gamma}$ for large $t$ for some…

We consider random walks amongst random conductances in the cases where the conductances can be arbitrarily small, with a heavy-tailed distribution at 0, and where the conductances may or may not have a heavy-tailed distribution at…

In analogy to what happens in finite dimensions we state the Normal Form Theorem for k-singularities, introduced in the previous paper of the series. By means of that we study the local behaviour near a singularity i.e. we deduce local…

We formulate a uniform tail bound for empirical processes indexed by a class of functions, in terms of the individual deviations of the functions rather than the worst-case deviation in the considered class. The tail bound is established by…