Related papers: Approximation methods for piecewise deterministic …
Discrete stochastic processes (DSP) are instrumental for modelling the dynamics of probabilistic systems and have a wide spectrum of applications in science and engineering. DSPs are usually analyzed via Monte Carlo methods since the number…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data.…
Inferential models (IMs) offer prior-free, Bayesian-like posterior degrees of belief designed for statistical inference, which feature a frequentist-like calibration property that ensures reliability of said inferences. The catch is that…
I propose a large class of stochastic Markov processes associated with probability distributions analogous to that of lattice gauge theory with dynamical fermions. The construction incorporates the idea of approximate spectral split of the…
We introduce a new algorithm for approximate inference that combines reparametrization, Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational methods. We construct a very flexible implicit variational distribution synthesized by an arbitrary Markov…
We aim at characterizing viability, invariance and some reachability properties of controlled piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). Using analytical methods from the theory of viscosity solutions, we establish criteria for…
We consider the efficient use of an approximation within Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), with subsequent importance sampling (IS) correction of the Markov chain inexact output, leading to asymptotically exact inference. We detail…
In recent decades, a number of profound theorems concerning approximation of hard counting problems have appeared. These include estimation of the permanent, estimating the volume of a convex polyhedron, and counting (approximately) the…
The stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) and the corresponding Monte Carlo (MC) method are among the most common approaches for studying stochastic processes. They rely on knowledge of interevent probability density functions (PDFs) and on…
This paper proposes a new importance sampling (IS) that is tailored to quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) integration over $\mathbb{R}^s$. IS introduces a multiplicative adjustment to the integrand by compensating the sampling from the proposal…
MCMC methods (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) are a class of methods used to perform simulations per a probability distribution $P$. These methods are often used when we have difficulties to directly sample per a given probability distribution…
Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…
The standard Monte Carlo estimator $\widehat{I}_N^{\mathrm{MC}}$ of $\int fd\omega$ relies on independent samples from $\omega$ and has variance of order $1/N$. Replacing the samples with a determinantal point process (DPP), a repulsive…
An extension of non-deterministic processes driven by the random telegraph signal is introduced in the framework of "piecewise deterministic Markov processes" [Davis], including a broader category of random systems. The corresponding…
Many problems of practical interest rely on Continuous-time Markov chains~(CTMCs) defined over combinatorial state spaces, rendering the computation of transition probabilities, and hence probabilistic inference, difficult or impossible…
In this paper we consider fully Bayesian inference in general state space models. Existing particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms use an augmented model that takes into account all the variable sampled in a sequential Monte…
We develop a stochastic approximation-type algorithm to solve finite state/action, infinite-horizon, risk-aware Markov decision processes. Our algorithm has two loops. The inner loop computes the risk by solving a stochastic saddle-point…
We aim at characterizing the asymptotic behavior of value functions in the control of piece-wise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP) of switch type under nonexpansive assumptions. For a particular class of processes inspired by temperate…
We propose to model the records of the maximum Drawdown in capital markets by means a Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process (PDMP). We derive statistical results such as the mean and variance that describes the sequence of maximum Drawdown…
The aim of this paper is to approximate a finite-state Markov process by another process with fewer states, called herein the approximating process. The approximation problem is formulated using two different methods. The first method,…