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We establish Cram\'er-type moderate deviation theorems for sums of locally dependent random variables and combinatorial central limit theorems. Under some mild exponential moment conditions, optimal error bounds and convergence ranges are…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-22 Song-Hao Liu , Zhuo-Song Zhang

Robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) aim to handle changing or partially known system dynamics. To solve them, one typically resorts to robust optimization methods. However, this significantly increases computational complexity and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-14 Esther Derman , Matthieu Geist , Shie Mannor

We consider large-scale Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a risk measure of variability in cost, under the risk-aware MDPs paradigm. Previous studies showed that risk-aware MDPs, based on a minimax approach to handling risk, can be…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-05-17 Pengqian Yu , William B. Haskell , Huan Xu

We consider non-standard Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) where the target function is not only a simple expectation of the accumulated reward. Instead, we consider rather general functionals of the joint distribution of terminal state and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-16 Nicole Bäuerle , Tamara Göll , Anna Jaśkiewicz

We establish a Cram\'er-type moderate deviation result for self-normalized sums of weakly dependent random variables, where the moment requirement is much weaker than the non-self-normalized counterpart. The range of the moderate deviation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-15 Xiaohong Chen , Qi-Man Shao , Wei Biao Wu

We study some notions of negative dependence of a sampling scheme that can be used to derive variance bounds for the corresponding estimator or discrepancy bounds for the underlying random point set that are at least as good as the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-02-10 Michael Gnewuch , Marcin Wnuk , Nils Hebbinghaus

In contrast to the study of Langevin equations in a homogeneous environment in the literature, the study on Langevin equations in randomly-varying environments is relatively scarce. Almost all the existing works require random environments…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-25 Nhu N. Nguyen , George Yin

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are widely used for modeling decision-making problems in robotics, automated control, and economics. Traditional MDPs assume that the decision maker (DM) knows all states and actions. However, this may not…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-07-29 Joseph Y. Halpern , Nan Rong , Ashutosh Saxena

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are widely used for modeling decision-making problems in robotics, automated control, and economics. Traditional MDPs assume that the decision maker (DM) knows all states and actions. However, this may not…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2010-06-14 Joseph Y. Halpern , Nan Rong , Ashutosh Saxena

This paper is concerned with planning in stochastic domains by means of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). POMDPs are difficult to solve. This paper identifies a subclass of POMDPs called region observable POMDPs,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Nevin Lianwen Zhang , Wenju Liu

We investigate random walks in independent, identically distributed random sceneries under the assumption that the scenery variables satisfy Cramer's condition. We prove moderate deviation principles in dimensions two and larger, covering…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Klaus Fleischmann , Peter Morters , Vitali Wachtel

The term \emph{moderate deviations} is often used in the literature to mean a class of large deviation principles that, in some sense, fills the gap between a convergence in probability to zero (governed by a large deviation principle) and…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-05 Jeonghwa Lee , Claudio Macci

We introduce the Markov Distributional Conformal Prediction (MDCP) method that extends the distributional conformal prediction (previously developed for regression) to the setting of a strictly stationary Markov process. Instead of relying…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Dehao Dai , Kejin Wu , Dimitris N. Politis

We cast episodic Markov decision process (MDP) planning as Bayesian inference over policies. A policy is treated as the latent variable and is assigned an unnormalized probability of optimality that is monotone in its expected return,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-14 David Tolpin

Adaptive model predictive control (MPC) robustly ensures safety while reducing uncertainty during operation. In this paper, a distributed version is proposed to deal with network systems featuring multiple agents and limited communication.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-04-17 Anilkumar Parsi , Ahmed Aboudonia , Andrea Iannelli , John Lygeros , Roy S. Smith

In the present paper, we consider the moderate deviation principle for the plug-in estimators of a large class of diversity indices on countable alphabets, where the distribution may change with the sample size. Our results cover some of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Zhenhong Yu , Yu Miao

We analyze the spectral distribution of symmetric random matrices with correlated entries. While we assume that the diagonals of these random matrices are stochastically independent, the elements of the diagonals are taken to be correlated.…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-05-31 Olga Friesen , Matthias Löwe

Learning a Markov Decision Process (MDP) from a fixed batch of trajectories is a non-trivial task whose outcome's quality depends on both the amount and the diversity of the sampled regions of the state-action space. Yet, many MDPs are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-08 Giorgio Angelotti , Nicolas Drougard , Caroline P. C. Chanel

For data assumed to come from a finite mixture with an unknown number of components, it has become common to use Dirichlet process mixtures (DPMs) not only for density estimation, but also for inferences about the number of components. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-01-15 Jeffrey W. Miller , Matthew T. Harrison

Before delegating a task to an autonomous system, a human operator may want a guarantee about the behavior of the system. This paper extends previous work on conformal prediction for functional data and conformalized quantile regression to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-23 Thomas G. Dietterich , Jesse Hostetler