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We show that a simple mechanistic model of spatial dispersal for settling organisms, subject to parameter variability, can generate heavy-tailed radial probability density functions. The movement of organisms in the model consists of a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-23 Luis F. Gordillo , Priscilla E. Greenwood

Recent studies have shown that heavy tails can emerge in stochastic optimization and that the heaviness of the tails have links to the generalization error. While these studies have shed light on interesting aspects of the generalization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-14 Anant Raj , Melih Barsbey , Mert Gürbüzbalaban , Lingjiong Zhu , Umut Şimşekli

In this paper we consider the first passage percolation with identical and independent exponentially distributions, called the Eden growth model, and we study the upper tail large deviations for the first passage time ${\rm T}$. Our main…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-01 Shuta Nakajima

Eigenvalues of Wigner matrices has been a major topic of investigation. A particularly important subclass of such random matrices is formed by the adjacency matrix of an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi graph $\mathcal{G}_{n,p}$ equipped with i.i.d.…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-15 Shirshendu Ganguly , Ella Hiesmayr , Kyeongsik Nam

The one-point distribution of the height for the continuum Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) equation is determined numerically using the mapping to the directed polymer in a random potential at high temperature. Using an importance sampling…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-02-05 Alexander K. Hartmann , Alexandre Krajenbrink , Pierre Le Doussal

Large deviations principle is obtained for terminating multidimensional compound renewal processes. We also obtained the asymptotic of large deviations for the case when a Gibbs change of the original probability measure takes place. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-20 A. Logachov , A. Mogulskii , E. Prokopenko

We identify the upper large deviation probability for the number of edges in scale-free geometric random graph models as the space volume goes to infinity. Our result covers the models of scale-free percolation, the Boolean model with…

The large deviations theory for heavy-tailed processes has seen significant advances in the recent past. In particular, Rhee et al. (2019) and Bazhba et al. (2020) established large deviation asymptotics at the sample-path level for L\'evy…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-29 Zhe Su , Chang-Han Rhee

Recent theoretical studies have shown that heavy-tails can emerge in stochastic optimization due to `multiplicative noise', even under surprisingly simple settings, such as linear regression with Gaussian data. While these studies have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-06 Mert Gurbuzbalaban , Yuanhan Hu , Umut Simsekli , Kun Yuan , Lingjiong Zhu

This paper studies the large scale limits of multi-type invariant distributions and Busemann functions of planar stochastic growth models in the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) class. We identify a set of sufficient hypotheses for convergence of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-06 Ofer Busani , Timo Seppäläinen , Evan Sorensen

We study the path properties of a random polymer attracted to a defect line by a potential with disorder, and we prove that in the delocalized regime, at any temperature, the number of contacts with the defect line remains in a certain…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-21 Kenneth S. Alexander , Nikos Zygouras

For models in the KPZ universality class, such as the zero temperature model of planar last passage-percolation (LPP) and the positive temperature model of directed polymers, its upper tail behavior has been a topic of recent interest, with…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Shirshendu Ganguly , Milind Hegde , Lingfu Zhang

Isoperimetric profile describes the minimal boundary size of a set with a prescribed volume. Itai Benjamini conjectured that the isoperimetric profile of the giant component in supercritical percolation experiences an averaging effect and…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-27 Christian Hirsch , Kyeongsik Nam

We study the random geometry of first passage percolation on the complete graph equipped with independent and identically distributed edge weights, continuing the program initiated by Bhamidi and van der Hofstad [9]. We describe our results…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-23 M. Eckhoff , J. Goodman , R. van der Hofstad , F. R. Nardi

This work develops a methodology for analyzing large-deviation lower tails associated with geometric functionals computed on a homogeneous Poisson point process. The technique applies to characteristics expressed in terms of stabilizing…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-15 Christian Hirsch , Benedikt Jahnel , András Tóbiás

We study the long-range directed polymer model on $\mathbbm{Z}$ in a random environment, where the underlying random walk lies in the domain of attraction of an $\alpha$-stable process for some $\alpha\in(0,2]$. Similar to the more classic…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-24 Ran Wei

We study the full distribution $P_M(S)$ of the number of distinct sites $S$ visited by a random walker on a $d$-dimensional lattice after $M$ steps. We focus on the case $d \ge 2$, and we are interested in the long-time limit $M \gg 1$. Our…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-06-16 Naftali R. Smith

We prove the upper-tail Large Deviation Principle (LDP) for the parabolic Airy process and characterize the limit shape of the directed landscape under the upper-tail conditioning. The LDP result answers Conjecture 10.1 in Das, Dauvergne,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-28 Sayan Das , Li-Cheng Tsai

We study the so-called pinning model, which describes the behavior of a Markov chain interacting with a distinguished state. The interaction depends on an external source of randomness, called disorder, which can attract or repel the Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-27 Niccolo Torri

In this paper, we consider the linearly reinforced and the once-reinforced random walk models in the transient phase on trees. We show the large deviations for the upper tails for both models. We also show the exponential decay for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-15 Yu Zhang
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