Related papers: Oil economy phase plot: a physical analogy
The behavior of complex systems is one of the most intriguing phenomena investigated by recent science; natural and artificial systems offer a wide opportunity for this kind of analysis. The energy conversion is both a process based on…
Global oil price is an important factor in determining many economic variables in the world's economy. It is generally modeled as a stochastic process and have been studied through different techniques by comparing the historic time series…
Net energy - the energy obtained from a resource after accounting for the energy expended in its acquisition - fundamentally determines the capacity of societies to sustain and expand. The extended Energy Return on Investment (EROIext)…
We recall the similarities between the concepts and techniques of Thermodynamics and Roegenian Economics. The Phase Diagram for a Roegenian economic system highlights a triple point and a critical point, with related explanations. These…
We consider demand-side economy. Using Caratheodory's approach, we define empirical existence of equation of state (EoS) and coordinates. We found new insights of thermodynamics EoS, the {\it effect structure}. Rules are proposed as…
By considering the Wade Formula, we propose a model to study the evolution of the oil price per barrel. Our model shows that the policy of diversification of the energy is to be supported. This model is proposed to see how it is possible to…
In recent years, there have been a lot of sharp changes in the oil price. These rapid changes cause the traditional models to fail in predicting the price behavior. The main reason for the failure of the traditional models is that they…
One major hurdle in the road toward a low carbon economy is the present entanglement of developed economies with oil. This tight relationship is mirrored in the correlation between most of economic indicators with oil price. This paper…
In part I of this analysis, the striking similarities of the declining oil production in the North Sea, Indonesia and Mexico were used to model the future maximum possible oil production per annum in all larger countries and regions of the…
The price of oil can rise because of a disruption to supply or an increase in demand. The nature of the price change determines the dynamic effects. As Kilian (2009) put it: "not all oil price shocks are alike." Using the latest available…
The growing conflicts in and about oil exporting regions and speculations about volatile oil prices during the last decade have renewed the public interest in predictions for the near future oil production and consumption. Unfortunately,…
The dependence of world GDP on current energy consumption and total energy produced over the previous period and materialized in the form of production infrastructure is studied. The dependence describes empirical data with high accuracy…
Involving effects of media, opinion leader and other agents on the opinion of individuals of market society, a trader based model is developed and utilized to simulate price via supply and demand. Pronounced effects are considered with…
Economic engineering is a new field wherein economic systems are modelled in the same manner as traditional mechanical and electrical engineering systems. In this paper, we use Newton's theory of motion as the basis for the theory of…
We present an analysis of oil prices in US$ and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up has been amplified by speculative…
Fifty North Sea oil & gas investment transactions were analysed using traditional spreadsheet based financial modelling methods. The purpose of the analysis was to determine if there was a statistically significant relationship between the…
Accurately forecasting the price of oil, the world's most actively traded commodity, is of great importance to both academics and practitioners. We contribute by proposing a functional time series based method to model and forecast oil…
Our work sheds new light on the role of oil prices in shaping the world economy by investigating flows of goods and services through global value chains between 1960 and 2011, by means of Markov Chain and network analysis. We show that over…
A thermodynamic approach to the description of economic systems and processes is developed. It is shown that there is a deep analogy between the parameters of thermodynamic and economic systems (markets); so each thermodynamic parameter can…
The methods of statistical physics of open systems are used for describing the time dependence of economic characteristics (income, profit, cost, supply, currency etc.) and their correlations with each other. Nonlinear equations (analogies…