Related papers: Oil economy phase plot: a physical analogy
We formulate thermodynamics of economic systems in terms of an arbitrary probability distribution for a conserved economic quantity. As in statistical physics, thermodynamic macroeconomic variables emerge as the mean value of microeconomic…
Crude oil is a major component in most advanced economies of the world. Accurately predicting and understanding the behavior of crude oil prices is important for economists, analysts, forecasters, and traders, to name a few. The price of…
This paper studies an integrated system of political and economic systems from a systematic perspective to explore the complex interaction between them, and specially analyzes the case of the US presidential election forecasting. Based on…
The dissertation investigates the application of Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) in forecasting the price of Crude Oil. This research is important because crude oil plays a very pivotal role in the global economy hence is a very…
Foundations of equilibrium thermodynamics are the equation of state (EoS) and four postulated laws of thermodynamics. We use equilibrium thermodynamics paradigms in constructing the EoS for microeconomics system that is a market. This…
Energy security and energy trade are the cornerstones of global economic and social development. The structural robustness of the international oil trade network (iOTN) plays an important role in the global economy. We integrate the machine…
In April 2009, we introduced a model representing the evolution of motor fuel price (a subcategory of the consumer price index of transportation) relative to the overall CPI as a linear function of time. Under our framework, all price…
In this study, we introduce a physical model inspired by statistical physics for predicting price volatility and expected returns by leveraging Level 3 order book data. By drawing parallels between orders in the limit order book and…
Global historical series spanning the last two centuries recently became available for primary energy consumption (PEC) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Based on a thorough analysis of the data, we propose a new, simple macroeconomic model…
Most of the econometric and econophysics models have been borrowed from the statistical physics, and as a cosequence, a new interdisciplinary science called econophysics has emerged. In this paper we planned to extend the analogy between…
Research on crude oil price forecasting has attracted tremendous attention from scholars and policymakers due to its significant effect on the global economy. Besides supply and demand, crude oil prices are largely influenced by various…
Econophysics, is based on the premise that some ideas and methods from physics can be applied to economic situations. We intend to show in this paper how a physics concept such as entropy can be applied to an economic problem. In so doing,…
For promoting the development of the marine economy more sustainably, based on the data envelopment analysis method and combined with the impact of the marine environment, the environmental performance of the marine economy was evaluated…
In the field of global energy and environment, crude oil is an important strategic resource, and its price fluctuation has a far-reaching impact on the global economy, financial market and the process of low-carbon development. In recent…
This paper introduces an information-based model for the pricing of storable commodities such as crude oil and natural gas. The model uses the concept of market information about future supply and demand as a basis for valuation. Physical…
Methods for detecting structural changes, or change points, in time series data are widely used in many fields of science and engineering. This chapter sketches some basic methods for the analysis of structural changes in time series data.…
The recent liberalization of the electricity and gas markets has resulted in the growth of energy exchanges and modelling problems. In this paper, we modelize jointly gas and electricity spot prices using a mean-reverting model which fits…
Energy economy optimization (EEO) models employ formal search techniques to explore the future decision space over several decades in order to deliver policy-relevant insights. EEO models are a critical tool for decision-makers who must…
Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches…
We study historical calibration of one- and two-factor models that are known to describe relatively well the dynamics of energy underlyings such as spot and index natural gas or oil prices at different physical locations or regional power…