Related papers: Oil economy phase plot: a physical analogy
I study a model which describes the birth of the universe using a global topological phase transition with a complex manifold where the time, $\tau$, is considered as a complex variable. Before the big bang $\tau$ is a purely imaginary…
We propose a new structural model that can compute the electricity spot and forward prices in two coupled markets with limited interconnection and multiple fuels. We choose a structural approach in order to represent some key…
A spring-block chain placed on a running conveyor belt is considered for modeling stylized facts observed in the dynamics of stock indexes. Individual stocks are modeled by the blocks, while the stock-stock correlations are introduced via…
This paper presents a structured power and energy-flow-based qualitative modelling approach that is applicable to a variety of system types including electrical and fluid flow. The modelling is split into two parts. Power flow is a global…
In this paper, we propose a convex data-based economic predictive control method within the framework of data-enabled predictive control (DeePC). Specifically, we use a neural network to transform the system output into a new state space,…
We propose an empirical framework for asymmetric Cournot oligopoly with private information about variable costs. First, considering a linear demand for a homogenous product with a random intercept, we characterize the Bayesian Cournot-Nash…
We propose two specifications of a real-time mixed-frequency semi-structural time series model for evaluating the output potential, output gap, Phillips curve, and Okun's law for the US. The baseline model uses minimal theory-based…
Since the start of its national renaissance in 1970, the Sultanate of Oman (Oman) has gone over a major development in several areas, such as education, infrastructure, and urbanization. This has been powered by the revenues from exporting…
Planning the defossilization of energy systems by facilitating high penetration of renewables and maintaining access to abundant and affordable primary energy resources is a nontrivial multi-objective problem. However, so far, most…
We propose a stylized model of a complex economy to explore the economic tradeoffs imposed by the so called "green transition" -- the shift towards more sustainable production paradigms -- using tools from the Statistical Mechanics of…
This paper presents some considerations regarding the prediction of the electrical energy consumption. It is well known that the central element of a microeconomic analysis is represented by the economical agents actions, actions that…
In this paper, we model the impact of oil price volatility on Tehranstock and industry indices in two periods of international sanctions and post-sanction. To analyse the purpose of study, we use Feed-forward neural net-works. The period of…
Using a metric related to the returns correlation, a method is proposed to reconstruct an economic space from the market data. A reduced subspace, associated to the systematic structure of the market, is identified and its dimension related…
Power curve is widely used in the wind industry to estimate power output for planning and operational purposes. Existing methods for power curve estimation have three main limitations: (i) they mostly rely on wind speed as the sole input,…
We consider a market model that consists of financial investors and producers of a commodity. Producers optionally store some production for future sale and go short on forward contracts to hedge the uncertainty of the future commodity…
A growing empirical literature suggests that equity-premium predictability is state dependent, with much of the forecasting power concentrated around recessionary periods (Henkel et al., 2011; Dangl and Halling, 2012; Devpura et al., 2018).…
A study is made of an anisotropic Potts model in three dimensions where the coupling depends on both the Potts state on each site but also the direction of the bond between them using both analytical and numerical methods. The phase diagram…
We apply the recently developed reduced Google matrix algorithm for the analysis of the OECD-WTO world network of economic activities. This approach allows to determine interdependences and interactions of economy sectors of several…
This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure.…
The theorems we proved describe the structure of economic equilibrium in the exchange economy model. We have studied the structure of property vectors under given structure of demand vectors at which given price vector is equilibrium one.…