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We propose to model the records of the maximum Drawdown in capital markets by means a Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process (PDMP). We derive statistical results such as the mean and variance that describes the sequence of maximum Drawdown…

In this paper, we consider a continuous-time Markov decision process (CTMDP) in Borel spaces, where the certainty equivalent with respect to the exponential utility of the total undiscounted cost is to be minimized. The cost rate is…

Model reduction of Markov processes is a basic problem in modeling state-transition systems. Motivated by the state aggregation approach rooted in control theory, we study the statistical state compression of a discrete-state Markov chain…

Markov Decision Processes (Mdps) form a versatile framework used to model a wide range of optimization problems. The Mdp model consists of sets of states, actions, time steps, rewards, and probability transitions. When in a given state and…

This paper considers binomial approximation of continuous time stochastic processes. It is shown that, under some mild integrability conditions, a process can be approximated in mean square sense and in other strong metrics by binomial…

Constructing an accurate system model for formal model verification can be both resource demanding and time-consuming. To alleviate this shortcoming, algorithms have been proposed for automatically learning system models based on observed…

Weconsider Markov decision processes arising from a Markov model of an underlying natural phenomenon. Such phenomena are usually periodic (e.g. annual) in time, and so the Markov processes modelling them must be time-inhomogeneous, with…

Birth and death Markov processes can model stochastic physical systems from percolation to disease spread and, in particular, wildfires. We introduce and analyze a birth-death-suppression Markov process as a model of controlled culling of…

This paper considers the optimal control of time varying continuous time Markov chains whose transition rates are themselves Markov processes. In one set of problems the solution of an ordinary differential equation is shown to determine…

In this work, we study the problem of actively classifying the attributes of dynamical systems characterized as a finite set of Markov decision process (MDP) models. We are interested in finding strategies that actively interact with the…

In this paper, we study discrete-time absorbing Markov Decision Processes (MDP) with measurable state space and Borel action space with a given initial distribution. For such models, solutions to the characteristic equation that are not…

We study discrete time Markov processes with periodic or open boundary conditions and with inhomogeneous rates in the bulk. The Markov matrices are given by the inhomogeneous transfer matrices introduced previously to prove the…

This paper deals with the question of how to most effectively conduct experiments in Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes so as to provide data that is most informative about a parameter of interest. Methods from Markov decision…

An American option grants the holder the right to select the time at which to exercise the option, so pricing an American option entails solving an optimal stopping problem. Difficulties in applying standard numerical methods to complex…

Probabilistic models help us encode latent structures that both model the data and are ideally also useful for specific downstream tasks. Among these, mixture models and their time-series counterparts, hidden Markov models, identify…

We consider Markov chains which are polynomially mixing, in a weak sense expressed in terms of the space of functions on which the mixing speed is controlled. In this context, we prove polynomial large and moderate deviations inequalities.…

This paper deals with the optimal stopping problem under partial observation for piecewise-deterministic Markov processes. We first obtain a recursive formulation of the optimal filter process and derive the dynamic programming equation of…

In this paper, we consider the gradual-impulse control problem of continuous-time Markov decision processes, where the system performance is measured by the expectation of the exponential utility of the total cost. We prove, under very…

We consider the Markov chain approximations for singular stable-like processes. First we obtain properties of some Markov chains. Then we construct the approximating Markov chains and give a necessary condition for weak convergence of these…

The use of coordinate processes for the modelling of impulse control for general Markov processes typically involves the construction of a probability measure on a countable product of copies of the path space. In addition, admissibility of…