Related papers: Diffusion limit for the partner model at the criti…
We consider a simple stochastic model for the spread of a disease caused by two virus strains in a closed homogeneously mixing population of size N. The spread of each strain in the absence of the other one is described by the stochastic…
We exhibit a scaling law for the critical SIS stochastic epidemic: If at time 0 the population consists of square root N infected and N - square root N susceptible individuals, then when time and number currently infected are both scaled by…
Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights…
Approximating the time to extinction of infection is an important problem in infection modelling. A variety of different approaches have been proposed in the literature. We study the performance of a number of such methods, and characterize…
We study the phase transition from the persistence phase to the extinction phase for the SIRS (susceptible/ infected/ refractory/ susceptible) model of diseases spreading on the networks. We derive an analytical expression of the…
In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the…
In this work we study a modified Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model in which the infection rate $\lambda$ decays exponentially with the number of reinfections $n$, saturating after $n=l$. We find a critical decaying rate…
We analyse a stochastic SIS epidemic amongst a finite population partitioned into households. Since the population is finite, the epidemic will eventually go extinct, i.e., have no more infectives in the population. We study the effects of…
This paper studies the distribution function of the time of extinction of a subcritical epidemic, when a large enough proportion of the population has been immunized and/or the infectivity of the infectious individuals has been reduced, so…
The quasi-deterministic limit of the generic extinction transition is considered within the framework of standard epidemiological models. The susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model is known to exhibit a transition from extinction to…
We consider a stochastic model of infection spread incorporating monogamous partnership dynamics. In previous work a basic reproduction number $R_0$ is defined with the property that if $R_0<1$ the infection dies out within $O(\log N)$…
This note gives an exponential tail approximation for the extinction time of a subcritical multitype branching process arising from the SIR epidemic model on a random graph with given degrees, where the type corresponds to the vertex…
We study the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model of the spread of an endemic infection. We calculate an exact expression for the mean number of transmissions for all values of the population and the infectivity. We derive the large-N…
We study that the breakdown of epidemic depends on some parameters, that is expressed in epidemic reproduction ratio number. It is noted that when $R_0 $ exceeds 1, the stochastic model have two different results. But, eventually the…
We study the phase transition from the persistence phase to the extinction phase for the SIRS (susceptible/ infected/ refractory/ susceptible) model of diseases spreading on small world network. We show the effects of all the parameters…
We consider a critical bisexual branching process in a random environment generated by independent and identically distributed random variables. Assuming that the process starts with a large number of pairs $N$, we prove that its extinction…
We study the critical behavior of the pair annihilation model (PAM) with diffusion in one, two and three dimensions, using the pair approximation (PA) and Monte Carlo simulation. Of principal interest is the dependence of the critical…
In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent p-coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…
Assume that $N_m(x)$ denotes the density of the population at a point $x$ at the beginning of the reproductive season in the $m$th year. We study the following impulsive reaction-diffusion model for any $m\in \mathbb Z^+$…
We study the extinction of epidemics in a simplicial susceptible-infected-susceptible model, where each susceptible individual becomes infected either by two-body interactions ($S+I \to 2I$) with a rate $\beta$ or by three-body interactions…