Related papers: A recursive point process model for infectious dis…
Exploring the internal mechanism of information spreading is critical for understanding and controlling the process. Traditional spreading models often assume individuals play the same role in the spreading process. In reality, however,…
At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented in order to reduce transmission, thus leading to multiple phases of transmission. The disease reproduction number $R_t$, a way of…
Many vector-borne disease epidemic models neglect the fact that in modern human civilization, social awareness as well as self-defence system are overwhelming against advanced propagation of the disease. News are becoming more effortlessly…
Current epidemics in the biological and social domains are challenging the standard assumptions of mathematical contagion models. Chief among them are the complex patterns of transmission caused by heterogeneous group sizes and infection…
We study a model for the spread of an infectious disease which incorporates spatial and temporal effects. The model is a delayed multi-type branching process in which types represent geographic regions while infected individuals reproduce…
The susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model is analyzed through a degree-based mean-field approach. In this work, a mitigation factor is introduced in the probability of finding an infected individual following an edge. This…
Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help…
The propagation of infectious diseases and its impact on individuals play a major role in disease dynamics, and it is important to incorporate population heterogeneity into efforts to study diseases. As a simplistic but illustrative…
It is essential to understand the dynamics of epidemics in the presence of coexisting pathogens. There are various phenomenon that can effect the dynamics. In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model using different assumptions to…
We consider a time-inhomogeneous diffusion process able to describe the dynamics of infected people in a susceptible-infectious epidemic model in which the transmission intensity function is time-dependent. Such a model is well suited to…
Cure rate models are mostly used to study data arising from cancer clinical trials. Its use in the context of infectious diseases has not been explored well. In 2008, Tournoud and Ecochard first proposed a mechanistic formulation of cure…
Renewal equations are a popular approach used in modelling the number of new infections, i.e., incidence, in an outbreak. We develop a stochastic model of an outbreak based on a time-varying variant of the Crump-Mode-Jagers branching…
We consider a mean-variance portfolio selection problem in a financial market with contagion risk. The risky assets follow a jump-diffusion model, in which jumps are driven by a multivariate Hawkes process with mutual-excitation effect. The…
Using the notion of effective distance proposed by Brockmann and Helbing, complex spatiotemporal processes of epidemic spreading can be reduced to circular wave propagation patterns with well-defined wavefronts. This hidden homogeneity of…
Longitudinal molecular data of rapidly evolving viruses and pathogens provide information about disease spread and complement traditional surveillance approaches based on case count data. The coalescent is used to model the genealogy that…
Branching processes are widely used to model evolutionary and population dynamics as well as the spread of infectious diseases. To characterize the dynamics of their growth or spread, the basic reproduction number $R_0$ has received…
The main aim to build models capable of simulating the spreading of infectious diseases is to control them. And along this way, the key to find the optimal strategy for disease control is to obtain a large number of simulations of disease…
Spreading dynamics and complex contagion processes on networks are important mechanisms underlying the emergence of critical transitions, tipping points and other nonlinear phenomena in complex human and natural systems. Increasing amounts…
The effective reproduction number $R_t$ measures an infectious disease's transmissibility as the number of secondary infections in one reproduction time in a population having both susceptible and non-susceptible hosts. Current approaches…
We study explosiveness of age-dependent branching processes describing the early stages of an epidemic-spread: both forward- and backward process are analysed. For the classical age-dependent branching process $(h,G)$, where the offspring…