Related papers: A recursive point process model for infectious dis…
We develop a stochastic framework for viral population dynamics at the cellular level that explicitly incorporates the replication cycle with random stage durations. The model is formulated as a structured birth-death process coupled with a…
Cascading chains of events are a salient feature of many real-world social, biological, and financial networks. In social networks, social reciprocity accounts for retaliations in gang interactions, proxy wars in nation-state conflicts, or…
A susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of multiple contagions on multilayer networks is developed to incorporate different spreading channels and disease mutations. The basic reproduction number for this model is estimated…
This paper is concerned with a SIS (susceptible, infected and susceptible populations) propagation disease model with a nonlinear incidence rate and eventual impulsive (non- necessarily being simultaneous) culling of both populations. The…
This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a non-exponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multi-stage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard…
For a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) infection model in a heterogeneous population, we present simple formulae giving the leading-order asymptotic (large population) behaviour of the mean persistence time, from an endemic state to…
This paper is focused on SIS (Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible) epidemic dynamics (also known as the contact process) on populations modelled by homogeneous Poisson point processes of the Euclidean plane, where the infection rate of a…
The COVID-19 pandemic provides new motivation for a classic problem in epidemiology: estimating the empirical rate of transmission during an outbreak (formally, the time-varying reproduction number) from case counts. While standard methods…
We present a modelling framework for the spreading of epidemics on temporal networks from which both the individual-based and pair-based models can be recovered. The proposed temporal pair-based model that is systematically derived from…
The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…
Infectious diseases are studied to understand their spreading mechanisms, to evaluate control strategies and to predict the risk and course of future outbreaks. Because people only interact with a small number of individuals, and because…
With the growing digital transformation of the worldwide economy, cyber risk has become a major issue. As 1 % of the world's GDP (around $1,000 billion) is allegedly lost to cybercrime every year, IT systems continue to get increasingly…
We develop a new structured compartmental model for the coevolutionary dynamics between susceptible and infectious individuals in heterogeneous SI epidemiological systems. In this model, the susceptible compartment is structured by a…
Yet often neglected, dynamical interdependencies between concomitant contagion processes can alter their intrinsic equilibria and bifurcations. A particular case of interest for disease control is the emergence of explosive transitions in…
Infectious diseases spread via pathogens such as viruses and bacteria. Airborne pathogen transmission via droplets is an important mode for infectious diseases. In this paper, the spreading mechanism of infectious diseases by airborne…
After more than 6 million deaths worldwide, the ongoing vaccination to conquer the COVID-19 disease is now competing with the emergence of increasingly contagious mutations, repeatedly supplanting earlier strains. Following the near-absence…
Early estimates of the transmission properties of a newly emerged pathogen are critical to an effective public health response, and are often based on limited outbreak data. Here, we use simulations to investigate a potential source of bias…
Most spreading processes require spatial proximity between agents. The stationary state of spreading dynamics in a population of mobile agents thus depends on the interplay between the time and length scales involved in the epidemic process…
Diseases emerge, persist and vanish in an ongoing battle for available hosts. Hosts, on the other hand, defend themselves by developing immunity that limits the ability of pathogens to reinfect them. We here explore a multi-disease system…
Models of threshold driven contagion explain the cascading spread of information, behavior, systemic risk, and epidemics on social, financial and biological networks. At odds with empirical observation, these models predict that…