Related papers: A recursive point process model for infectious dis…
The study proposes a modeling framework for investigating the disease dynamics with adaptive human behavior during a disease outbreak, considering the impacts of both local observations and global information. One important application…
In this article we develop a highly integrated effective degree approach to modeling epidemic and awareness spreading processes on multiplex networks coupled with awareness-dependent adaptive rewiring. This approach keeps track of the…
Complex networks represent the natural backbone to study epidemic processes in populations of interacting individuals. Such a modeling framework, however, is naturally limited to pairwise interactions, making it less suitable to properly…
Both Hawkes processes and autoregressive processes rely on linear functionals of their past, while modeling different types of data. Since datasets arising from observations of the same phenomenon may be heterogeneous and sampled at…
We propose a framework for Bayesian non-parametric estimation of the rate at which new infections occur assuming that the epidemic is partially observed. The developed methodology relies on modelling the rate at which new infections occur…
Compartmental models like the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)\cite{Kermack1927} and its extensions such as the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIRS)\cite{Ottar2020,Ignazio2021,Grimm2021,Paoluzzi2021} are commonly used to model…
In this paper, we first propose a diffusive pathogen infection model with general incidence rate which incorporates cell-to-cell transmission. By applying the theory of monotone dynamical systems, we prove that the model admits the global…
In order to disentangle the internal dynamics from exogenous factors within the Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model, we present an effective measure of endogeneity. Inspired from the Hawkes model, this measure is defined as the…
We develop a feedback control method for networked epidemic spreading processes. In contrast to most prior works which consider mean field, open-loop control schemes, the present work develops a novel framework for feedback control of…
Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to…
The symptoms of many infectious diseases influence their host to withdraw from social activity limiting their own potential to spread. Successful transmission therefore requires the onset of infectiousness to coincide with a time when its…
We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…
This study examines how the fate of a perpetrator in a public mass shooting influences the fate of subsequent perpetrators. Using data from 1966 to 2024, we classify incidents according to whether the perpetrator died at the scene or…
We present a differential equations model in which contagious disease transmission is affected by contagious fear of the disease and contagious fear of the control, in this case vaccine. The three contagions are coupled. The two fears…
Many pathogens spread primarily via direct contact between infected and susceptible hosts. Thus, the patterns of contacts or contact network of a population fundamentally shapes the course of epidemics. While there is a robust and growing…
Complex networks have been successfully used to describe the spread of diseases in populations of interacting individuals. Conversely, pairwise interactions are often not enough to characterize social contagion processes such as opinion…
Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…
Motivated by the recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19), we propose a stochastic model of epidemic temporal growth and mitigation based on a time-modulated Hawkes process. The model is sufficiently rich to incorporate specific…
In the context of epidemic spreading, many intricate dynamical patterns can emerge due to the cooperation of different types of pathogens or the interaction between the disease spread and other failure propagation mechanism. To unravel such…
Motile organisms can form stable agglomerates such as cities or colonies. In the outbreak of a highly contagious disease, the control of large-scale epidemic spread depends on factors like the number and size of agglomerates, travel rate…