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Wind farms can be regarded as complex systems that are, on the one hand, coupled to the nonlinear, stochastic characteristics of weather and, on the other hand, strongly influenced by supervisory control mechanisms. One crucial problem in…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-22 Tobias Braun , Matthias Waechter , Joachim Peinke , Thomas Guhr

To obtain explicit understanding of the behavior of dynamical systems, geometrical methods and slow-fast analysis have proved to be highly useful. Such methods are standard for smooth dynamical systems, and increasingly used for continuous,…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-10-19 Francesco Montefusco , Morten Gram Pedersen

We present a new stochastic approach to describe and remodel the conversion process of a wind farm at a sampling frequency of 1Hz. When conditioning on various wind direction sectors, the dynamics of the conversion process appear as a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-09-11 Patrick Milan , Matthias Wächter , Joachim Peinke

A probabilistic framework is proposed for the optimization of efficient switched control strategies for physical systems dominated by stochastic excitation. In this framework, the equation for the state trajectory is replaced with an…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-01-10 Gianluca Meneghello , Paolo Luchini , Thomas Bewley

To address the environmental concern and improve the economic efficiency, the wind power is rapidly integrated into smart grids. However, the inherent uncertainty of wind energy raises operational challenges. To ensure the cost-efficient,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-11-10 Wei Xie , Yuan Yi , Zhi Zhou , Keqi Wang

A systematic Bayesian framework is developed for physics constrained parameter inference ofstochastic differential equations (SDE) from partial observations. The physical constraints arederived for stochastic climate models but are…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-11-25 Daniel Peavoy , Christian L. E. Franzke , Gareth O. Roberts

This paper presents a method to better integrate dynamic models for renewable resources into synthetic electric grids. An automated dynamic models assignment process is proposed for wind and solar generators. A realistic composition ratio…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-01-08 Yijing Liu , Zeyu Mao , Hanyue Li , Komal S Shetye , Thomas J. Overbye

In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold…

Applications · Statistics 2016-06-03 Florian Ziel , Carsten Croonenbroeck , Daniel Ambach

The energy transition is causing many stability-related challenges for power systems. Transient stability refers to the ability of a power grid's bus angles to retain synchronism after the occurrence of a major fault. In this paper a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-12 Tim Aschenbruck , Willem Esterhuizen , Stefan Streif

Given the complexity of power systems, particularly the high-dimensional variability of net loads, accurately depicting the entire operational range of net loads poses a challenge. To address this, recent methodologies have sought to gauge…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-23 Xinyi Zhao , Lei Fan , Fei Ding , Weijia Liu , Chaoyue Zhao

Given (small amounts of) time-series' data from a high-dimensional, fine-grained, multiscale dynamical system, we propose a generative framework for learning an effective, lower-dimensional, coarse-grained dynamical model that is predictive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-18 Sebastian Kaltenbach , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

This work introduces the category of Power System Transition Planning optimization problem. It aims to shift power systems to emissions-free networks efficiently. Unlike comparable work, the framework presented here broadly applies to the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-05 Ahmed Al-Shafei , Nima Amjady , Hamidreza Zareipour , Yankai Cao

Development of robust dynamical systems and networks such as autonomous aircraft systems capable of accomplishing complex missions faces challenges due to the dynamically evolving uncertainties coming from model uncertainties, necessity to…

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-30 Kostas Hatalis , Shalinee Kishore , Katya Scheinberg , Alberto Lamadrid

A method is developed to estimate the properties of a global hydrodynamic instability in turbulent flows from measurement data of the limit-cycle oscillations. For this purpose, the flow dynamics are separated in deterministic contributions…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-04-21 Moritz Sieber , C. Oliver Paschereit , Kilian Oberleithner

The theory of slow manifolds is an important tool in the study of deterministic dynamical systems, giving a practical method by which to reduce the number of relevant degrees of freedom in a model, thereby often resulting in a considerable…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-07-01 George W A Constable , Alan J McKane , Tim Rogers

Wind energy is becoming an increasingly crucial component of a sustainable grid, but its inherent variability and limited predictability present challenges for grid operators. The energy sector needs novel forecasting techniques that can…

Applications · Statistics 2023-12-05 Zheng Dong , Hanyu Zhang , Shixiang Zhu , Yao Xie , Pascal Van Hentenryck

As inelastic design for wind is embraced by the engineering community, there is an increasing demand for computational tools that enable the investigation of the nonlinear behavior of wind-excited structures and subsequent development of…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-07-29 Srinivasan Arunachalam , Seymour M. J. Spence

The increased integration of intermittent and decentralised forms of power production has eroded the stability margins of power grids and made it more challenging to ensure reliable and secure power transmission. Reliable grid operation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-01-27 John M. Moloney , Sam J. Williamson , Cameron L. Hall

The data-driven recovery of the unknown governing equations of dynamical systems has recently received an increasing interest. However, the identification of governing equations remains challenging when dealing with noisy and partial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-17 Duong Nguyen , Said Ouala , Lucas Drumetz , Ronan Fablet