Related papers: A stage-structured Bayesian hierarchical model for…
The state of the art of epidemic modelling in terrestrial ecosystems is the compartmental SIR model and its extensions from the now classical work of Kermack-Mackendrick. In contrast, epidemic modelling of marine ecosystems is a bit behind,…
Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage…
In many Phase II statistical process control (SPC) problems, the main concern is not whether a monitored process has ever changed, but whether it is currently operating at an acceptable level. This distinction is especially important when…
Seed formation is part of the reproductive cycle, leading to the accumulation of resistance stages that can withstand harsh environmental conditions for long periods of time. At the community level, multiple species with such long-lasting…
A pipeline to evaluate the evolution of viral dynamics based on a new model-driven approach has been developed in the present study. The proposed methods exploit real data and the multiscale structure of the infection dynamics to provide…
The key to a robust life system is to ensure that each cell population is maintained in an appropriate state. In this work, a mathematical model was used to investigate the control of the switching between the migrating and non-migrating…
This paper addresses the problem of data-driven computation of controllers that are correct by design for safety-critical systems and can provably satisfy (complex) functional requirements. With a focus on continuous-space stochastic…
Human microbiome studies use sequencing technologies to measure the abundance of bacterial species or Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) in samples of biological material. Typically the data are organized in contingency tables with OTU…
In epidemics many interesting quantities, like the reproduction number, depend on the incubation period (time from infection to symptom onset) and/or the generation time (time until a new person is infected from another infected person).…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
Effective biosecurity practices in swine production are key in preventing the introduction and dissemination of infectious pathogens. Ideally, biosecurity practices should be chosen by their impact on bio-containment and bio-exclusion,…
Although traditional literature on mortality modeling has focused on single countries in isolation, recent contributions have progressively moved toward joint models for multiple countries. Besides favoring borrowing of information to…
Population inhomogeneity, in the variation of the individual social contact networks and the individual infectious-recovery rates, renders the dynamics of infectious disease spreading uncertain. As a consequence the overlaying economical…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
Contagious mastitis pathogens can be transmitted through milking. However, previously published simulation models, such as MiCull, have not directly taken this into account. We have reimplemented the MiCull model to model transmission of…
The analysis of longitudinal categorical data can be complex and unfeasible due to the number of parameters involved, characterised by overparameterisation leading to model non-convergence, in addition to problems related to sample size and…
We develop a new structured compartmental model for the coevolutionary dynamics between susceptible and infectious individuals in heterogeneous SI epidemiological systems. In this model, the susceptible compartment is structured by a…
We propose PALPS, a Process Algebra with Locations for Population Systems. PALPS allows us to produce spatially-explicit, individual-based models and to reason about their behavior. Our calculus has two levels: at the first level we may…
The course of an epidemic is not only shaped by infection transmission over face-to-face contacts, but also by preventive behaviour caused by risk perception and social interactions. This study explores the dynamics of coupled awareness and…
Measuring the impact of an environmental point source exposure on the risk of disease, like cancer or childhood asthma, is well-developed. Modeling how an environmental health hazard that is extensive in space, like a wastewater canal,…