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We develop a martingale approximation approach to studying the limiting behavior of quadratic forms of Markov chains. We use the technique to examine the asymptotic behavior of lag-window estimators in time series and we apply the results…

We prove the existence of limiting distributions for a large class of Markov chains on a general state space in a random environment. We assume suitable versions of the standard drift and minorization conditions. In particular, the system…

To overcome some limits of classical neuronal models, we propose a Markovian generalization of the classical model based on Jacobi processes by introducing downwards jumps to describe the activity of a single neuron. The statistical…

We study a class of Markovian systems of $N$ elements taking values in $[0,1]$ that evolve in discrete time $t$ via randomized replacement rules based on the ranks of the elements. These rank-driven processes are inspired by variants of the…

We are interested in the local limits of families of random trees that satisfy the Markov branching property, which is fulfilled by a wide range of models. Loosely, this property entails that given the sizes of the sub-trees above the root,…

We study the evolution of a particle system whose genealogy is given by a supercritical continuous time Galton--Watson tree. The particles move independently according to a Markov process and when a branching event occurs, the offspring…

Markov jump processes (MJPs) are continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in a variety of applied disciplines. Inference for MJPs typically proceeds via Markov chain Monte Carlo, the state-of-the-art being a uniformization-based…

We study distributions of meeting times for finite symmetric Markov chains. For Markov kernels defined on large state spaces which satisfy certain weak inhomogeneity in return probabilities of points up to large numbers of steps, we obtain…

For a continuous-time random walk $X=\{X_t,t\ge 0\}$ (in general non-Markov), we study the asymptotic behavior, as $t\rightarrow \infty$, of the normalized additive functional $c_t\int_0^{t} f(X_s)ds$, $t\ge 0$. Similarly to the Markov…

In this paper we consider the problem of parameter inference for Markov jump process (MJP) representations of stochastic kinetic models. Since transition probabilities are intractable for most processes of interest yet forward simulation is…

Many probabilistic inference problems such as stochastic filtering or the computation of rare event probabilities require model analysis under initial and terminal constraints. We propose a solution to this bridging problem for the widely…

These notes were used in a short graduate course on branching processes the author gave in Beijing Normal University. The following main topics are covered: scaling limits of Galton--Watson processes, continuous-state branching processes,…

We study a new technique for the asymptotic analysis of heavy-tailed systems conditioned on large deviations events. We illustrate our approach in the context of ruin events of multidimensional regularly varying random walks. Our approach…

Let $\mu$ = ($\mu$t)t$\in$R be any 1-parameter family of probability measures on R. Its quantile process (Gt)t$\in$R : ]0, 1[ $\rightarrow$ RR, given by Gt($\alpha$) = inf{x $\in$ R : $\mu$t(]--$\infty$, x]) > $\alpha$}, is not Markov in…

Catastrophe Markov chain population models have received a lot of attention in the recent past. We herewith consider two special cases of such models involving total disasters, both in discrete and in continuous-time. Depending on the…

We introduce $(\varepsilon, \delta)$-bisimulation, a novel type of approximate probabilistic bisimulation for continuous-time Markov chains. In contrast to related notions, $(\varepsilon, \delta)$-bisimulation allows the use of different…

We study linear preconditioning in Markov chain Monte Carlo. We consider the class of well-conditioned distributions, for which several mixing time bounds depend on the condition number $\kappa$. First we show that well-conditioned…

We prove an invariance principle for non-stationary random processes and establish a rate of convergence under a new type of mixing condition. The dependence is exponentially decaying in the gap between the past and the future and is…

We study the exponential growth of bifurcating processes with ancestral dependence. We suppose here that the lifetimes of the cells are dependent random variables, that the numbers of new cells are random and dependent. Lifetimes and new…

In this article, we introduce \textit{Mallows processes}, defined to be continuous-time c\`adl\`ag processes with Mallows distributed marginals. We show that such processes exist and that they can be restricted to have certain natural…