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We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2015-11-05 Siddhartha Banerjee , Peter Lofgren

The availability of data sets with large numbers of variables is rapidly increasing. The effective application of Bayesian variable selection methods for regression with these data sets has proved difficult since available Markov chain…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-08 Jim Griffin , Krys Latuszynski , Mark Steel

We study the double scaling limit for unitary invariant ensembles of random matrices with non analytic potentials and find the asymptotic expansion for the entries of the corresponding Jacobi matrix. Our approach is based on the…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2007-05-23 M. Shcherbina

We study properties of the Laplace transforms of non-negative additive functionals of Markov chains. We are namely interested in a multiplicative ergodicity property used in [18] to study bifurcating processes with ancestral dependence. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-11 Loïc Hervé , Françoise Pène

For any two-sided jumping $\alpha$-stable process, where $1 < \alpha < 2$, we find an explicit identity for the law of the first hitting time of the origin. This complements existing work in the symmetric case and the spectrally one-sided…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-11 Alexey Kuznetsov , Andreas E. Kyprianou , Juan Carlos Pardo , Alexander R. Watson

We investigate the scaling limit of the seed bank diffusion when reproduction and migration (to and from the seed bank) happen on different time-scales. More precisely, we consider the case when migration is `slow' and reproduction is…

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes with a wide range of applications in both natural and social sciences. Despite their widespread use, inference in these models is highly non-trivial and typically proceeds via…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-01 Patrick Seifner , Ramses J. Sanchez

For Markov processes evolving on multiple time-scales a combination of large component scalings and averaging of rapid fluctuations can lead to useful limits for model approximation. A general approach to proving a law of large numbers to a…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-29 Lea Popovic

We consider a Markov jump process on a general state space to which we apply a time-dependent weak perturbation over a finite time interval. By martingale-based stochastic calculus, under a suitable exponential moment bound for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-14 Alessandra Faggionato , Vittoria Silvestri

There is a well-established theory linking certain semi-Markov chains and continuous-time random walks to time-fractional equations and anomalous diffusion. In this work, we go beyond the semi-Markov framework by considering some…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-27 Lorenzo Facciaroni , Costantino Ricciuti , Enrico Scalas

We investigate the convergence in distribution of sequential empirical processes of dependent data indexed by a class of functions F. Our technique is suitable for processes that satisfy a multiple mixing condition on a space of functions…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-09-26 Herold Dehling , Olivier Durieu , Marco Tusche

Markov chain approximations of symmetric jump processes are investigated. Tightness results and a central limit theorem are established. Moreover, given the generator of a symmetric jump process with state space $\mathbbm{R}^d$ the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 R. Husseini , M. Kassmann

Whereas classical invariance principles for ergodic Markov chains address the situation in which the time horizon of observations is much larger than the mixing time, the quality of approximation is questionable when this is not the case…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Gabriele Bellerino , Angelika Rohde

We study the asymptotic behavior of multiscale stochastic gene networks using weak limits of Markov jump processes. Depending on the time and concentration scales of the system we distinguish four types of limits: continuous piecewise…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-01-10 Alina Crudu , Arnaud Debussche , Aurélie Muller , Ovidiu Radulescu

In this paper, we are concerned with centered Markov Additive Processes $\{(X_t,Y_t)\}_{t\in\T}$ where the driving Markov process $\{X_t\}_{t\in\T}$ has a finite state space. Under suitable conditions, we provide a local limit theorem for…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-25 Loïc Hervé , James Ledoux

The extremal behaviour of a Markov chain is typically characterized by its tail chain. For asymptotically dependent Markov chains existing formulations fail to capture the full evolution of the extreme event when the chain moves out of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-07 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Kirstin Strokorb , Jonathan A. Tawn , Adam Butler

The paper is devoted to studies of perturbed Markov chains commonly used for description of information networks. In such models, the matrix of transition probabilities for the corresponding Markov chain is usually regularised by adding a…

We consider two types of discrete-time Markov chains where the state space is a graded poset and the transitions are taken along the covering relations in the poset. The first type of Markov chain goes only in one direction, either up or…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-06 Kimmo Eriksson , Markus Jonsson , Jonas Sjöstrand

We generalize recent results of Haas and Miermont to obtain scaling limits of Markov branching trees whose size is specified by the number of nodes whose out-degree lies in a given set. We then show that this implies that the scaling limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-24 Douglas Rizzolo

We consider a model of a discrete time "interacting particle system" on the integer line where infinitely many changes are allowed at each instance of time. We describe the model using chameleons of two different colours, {\it viz}., red…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-07-23 Antar Bandyopadhyay , Rahul Roy , Anish Sarkar