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Parameter change test has been an important issue in time series analysis. The problem has also been actively explored in the field of integer-valued time series, but the testing in the presence of outliers has not yet been extensively…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-02 Jiwon Kang , Junmo Song

This paper studies multivariate nonparametric change point localization and inference problems. The data consists of a multivariate time series with potentially short range dependence. The distribution of this data is assumed to be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-30 Carlos Misael Madrid Padilla , Haotian Xu , Daren Wang , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Yi Yu

Change-point detection methods are proposed for the case of temporary failures, or transient changes, when an unexpected disorder is ultimately followed by a readjustment and return to the initial state. A base distribution of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-14 Baron Michael , Malov Sergey

Detecting abrupt changes in the mean of a time series, so-called changepoints, is important for many applications. However, many procedures rely on the estimation of nuisance parameters (like long-run variance). Under the alternative (a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-14 Michal Pešta , Martin Wendler

Change-point detection and estimation procedures have been widely developed in the literature. However, commonly used approaches in change-point analysis have mainly been focusing on detecting change-points within an entire time series…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-27 Chak Fung Choi , Chunxue Li , Chun Yip Yau , Zifeng Zhao

In this paper, we study the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator for an event time distribution function at a point in the current status model with observation times supported on a grid of potentially unknown sparsity and with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-29 Runlong Tang , Moulinath Banerjee , Michael R. Kosorok

We consider a stationary linear $AR(p)$ model with zero mean. The autoregression parameters as well as the distribution function (d.f.) $G(x)$ of innovations are unknown. We consider two situations. In the first situation the observations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-12 M. V. Boldin , A. R. Shabakaeva

Change point detection in time series has attracted substantial interest, but most of the existing results have been focused on detecting change points in the time domain. This paper considers the situation where nonlinear time series have…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-22 Yan Cui , Jun Yang , Zhou Zhou

This paper considers the prominent problem of change-point detection in regression. The study suggests a novel testing procedure featuring a fully data-driven calibration scheme. The method is essentially a black box, requiring no tuning…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-02 Valeriy Avanesov

We consider the detection and localization of change points in the distribution of an offline sequence of observations. Based on a nonparametric framework that uses a similarity graph among observations, we propose new test statistics when…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-05 Lizhen Nie , Dan L. Nicolae

We consider together the retrospective and the sequential change-point detection in a general class of integer-valued time series. The conditional mean of the process depends on a parameter $\theta^*$ which may change over time. We propose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-29 Mamadou Lamine Diop , William Kengne

We introduce a generic class of dynamic nonlinear heterogeneous parameter models that incorporate individual and time fixed effects in both the intercept and slope. These models are subject to the incidental parameter problem, in that the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-27 Xuan Leng , Jiaming Mao , Yutao Sun

Classical change point analysis aims at (1) detecting abrupt changes in the mean of a possibly non-stationary time series and at (2) identifying regions where the mean exhibits a piecewise constant behavior. In many applications however, it…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-17 Axel Bücher , Holger Dette , Florian Heinrichs

In this paper, we present the asymptotic properties of the moment estimator for autoregressive (AR for short) models subject to Markovian changes in regime under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-06 Yacouba Boubacar Mainassara , Landy Rabehasaina , Armel Bra

It is commonly required to detect change points in sequences of random variables. In the most difficult setting of this problem, change detection must be performed sequentially with new observations being constantly received over time.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-08 Gordon J Ross

A weighted Shiryaev-Roberts change detection procedure is shown to approximately minimize the expected delay to detection as well as higher moments of the detection delay among all change-point detection procedures with the given low…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-04 Serguei Pergamenchtchikov , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

Most studies in real time change-point detection either focus on the linear model or use the CUSUM method under classical assumptions on model errors. This paper considers the sequential change-point detection in a nonlinear quantile model.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-03 Gabriela Ciuperca

Most of the literature on change-point analysis by means of hypothesis testing considers hypotheses of the form H0 : \theta_1 = \theta_2 vs. H1 : \theta_1 != \theta_2, where \theta_1 and \theta_2 denote parameters of the process before and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-26 Holger Dette , Dominik Wied

We study an epidemic type change in innovations of a first order autoregressive process $ y_{n,k} = \varphi_n y_{n,k-1} + \epsilon_{k} + a_{n,k}$, where $\phi_n$ is either a constant in $(-1,1)$ or a sequence in $(0,1)$, converging to 1.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-21 Jurgita Markevičiūtė , Alfredas Račkauskas , Charles Suquet

Change points in real-world systems mark significant regime shifts in system dynamics, possibly triggered by exogenous or endogenous factors. These points define regimes for the time evolution of the system and are crucial for understanding…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-30 Ioanna-Yvonni Tsaknaki , Fabrizio Lillo , Piero Mazzarisi