Testing epidemic change in nearly nonstationary process with statistics based on residuals
Statistics Theory
2014-10-21 v1 Statistics Theory
Abstract
We study an epidemic type change in innovations of a first order autoregressive process , where is either a constant in or a sequence in , converging to 1. For inside some unknown interval , while for outside . When , we have an epidemic deviation from the usual (zero) mean of innovations. Since innovations are not observed, we build uniform increments statistics on residuals of the process . We assume that innovations are regularly varying with index or satisfies integrability condition for and for . We find the limit distributions of the tests under no change and prove consistency under short epidemics that is for some .
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.1410.4945,
title = {Testing epidemic change in nearly nonstationary process with statistics based on residuals},
author = {Jurgita Markevičiūtė and Alfredas Račkauskas and Charles Suquet},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1410.4945},
year = {2014}
}